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Opinionated Rugby Commentary - by Fans for Fans
Spill what you really think about events in the rugby world.
Super Rugby 2012 Final Standings Prediction 8 views
15 May 2012 by The Swede Eaters
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Scotty Donaldson crunches the numbers to find out who will make the Super Rugby 2012 Top Six playoffs. What do you think of the predictions?
With six rounds of Super Rugby 2012 remaining I thought I would undertake astute analysis to determine the Super Rugby 2012 Final Placing Projections.
These predictions are based on the Round 12 points;
1) The higher ranked team gets four points if they are playing at home.
2) If any team is playing at home against a team ranked less than five points higher, they get four points.
3) If any team is at least five points ahead of their opposition and playing away from home, then they get four points.
4) If any team is playing away from home and has between the same number of points and four points more than their opposition then they get one bonus point.
5) If any team is playing at home against a team ranked 15 points or more below them then they get a four try bonus point.
6) If any team is playing at home and is between 5 and 7 points behind their opponent than they get a bonus point.
Once I have plugged my formula into the calculations for Super Rugby 2012 Final Placing Projections I have found that the Bulls and Chiefs will be tied on 69 points. The Sharks and Reds will finish tied for sixth to make the playoffs. The Hurricanes and Highlanders will fade and not make the Top Six. It looks like three South African sides could make the Top Six, although this isn't a bad things as a team like the Sharks may have a better chance at knocking out the Bulls or Stormers in the republic than other teams.
The only problem with the formula is that it doesn't take into account the form, fatigue, the bye and travel factors of teams. It is also based on the Round 12 standings when some teams will finish stronger and be more favoured for later games than they were in our calculations.
There are plenty of games remaining which affect the Top Six which no formula could predict results for. There are about three of these per round.
What do you think of the Super Rugby 2012 Final Placings Projections?
Super Rugby 2012 Final Placing Projections
1) Bulls 69
2) Chiefs 69
3) Brumbies 64
4) Stormers 68
5) Crusaders 59
6) Sharks 52
7) Reds 52
8) Hurricanes 46
9) Highlanders 44
10) Cheetahs 35
11) Waratahs 33
12) Force 31
13) Rebels 30
14) Blues 24
15) Lions 14
http://www.superrugbytips.com/2012/05/super-rugby-2012-final-placing.html
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