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Opinionated Rugby Commentary - by Fans for Fans
Spill what you really think about events in the rugby world.
Who Will Win and Make The Finals of Super Rugby? 9 views
16 June 2011 by The Swede Eaters
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Which teams will make the Super Rugby finals and eventually win the Super Rugby competition?
The Super Rugby finalists will be found at the end of Round 18, with so much riding on so many matches, we thought it was time to do some number crunching.
According to www.tab.co.nz
The Crusaders are favourites to win the Super Rugby 15 team competition, although I think they won't want to be travelling all the way to South Africa to play the Stormers and will be hoping the Cheetahs cause a boil over this weekend.
1 Crusaders 2.50
2 Bulls 14.00
3 Sharks 40.00
4 Stormers 3.60
8 Blues 12.00
9 Waratahs 22.00
10 Reds 3.10
Super Rugby Standing
1 Reds Australian Conference Leader 62
2 Stormers South African Conference Leader 58
3 Crusaders New Zealand Conference Leader 57
4 Blues Wildcard 56
5 Bulls Wildcard 53
6 Sharks Wildcard 53
7 Waratahs 52
There are only seven teams left in the running for the Super Rugby Top Six finals with one round remaining. It is difficult to know who will be playing their finals where, with the potential for some teams to travel far more than others. Who will make the Top Six? We look at the Round 18 matches and how this will affect the Top Six rankings.
The most important game of Round 18 is the Bulls vs Sharks. The loser of this match is probably going to be overtaken by the Waratahs assuming they beat the Brumbies, while the winner could pass the Blues if they lose.
The most likely finishing order assuming the favourites win their matches this week are the following (remember the large number of upsets so far).
Reds 66
Stormers 62
Crusaders 61
Blues 60
Bulls 57
Waratahs 56
The only problem is that the Reds, Stormers, Crusaders, Sharks and Waratahs are all playing away matches against teams who have lifted their games in recent weeks, while most of these top teams aren't at the top of their game.
The above rankings would assume that there are no bonus points this weekend. A bonus point win for scoring four tries could help the Crusaders, Blues and Waratahs move up a placing depending on tie breaker rules.
With the placings in the order above the semi-finals would be played in Nelson (Crusaders would move their matches to Nelson) Crusaders vs Waratahs and Auckland where the Blues would host the Bulls.
Super Rugby Top Six finals draw
Reds bye
Stormers bye
Crusaders vs Waratahs
Blues vs Bulls
Semi-finals
Reds vs Blues
Stormers vs Crusaders
Final
Winner semi final 1
Winner semi final 2
Things would change substantially if for example the Cheetahs defeat the Stormers this weekend.That result could potentially leave the Stormers in fourth spot, but they would be awarded third spot most likely ahead of the Blues because they are a conference winner.
That would see the following draw take place
Reds bye
Crusaders bye
Stormers vs Waratahs
Blues vs Bulls
Semi finals most likely
Reds vs Blues
Crusaders vs Stormers
Final
Winner semi 1
Winner semi 2
Another possible option is if the Sharks defeat the Bulls. This could see them travelling to New Zealand to face the Blues.
I personally think the Reds could well lose this weekend and this would be bad news for the New Zealand teams with a likely semi final visit to Cape Town in two weeks for the Crusaders or Blues.
Reds bye
Stormers bye
Crusaders vs Waratahs
Blues vs Sharks
Semi final
Reds vs Blues
Stormers vs Crusaders
Final
Winner semi final 1
Winner semi final 2
Who do you think will make the Super Rugby finals? Who will win?
I think the winner will finish first in their conference, because I think that it would be too difficult to win two away matches in the finals series.
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