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Opinionated Rugby Commentary - by Fans for Fans
Spill what you really think about events in the rugby world.
Super 15 Rugby Round 9 Preview and Fantasy Guide 11 views
09 April 2015 by The Swede Eaters
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Super Rugby Round 9 preview.
For Super Rugby fans, the competition is almost at the halfway stage with eight rounds giving tipsters an opportunity to get a gauge on the form horses for 2015.
Super 15 Rugby Round 1 2015 left a lot of people red faced with most tipsters picking between two and three winners out of seven games. Fast forward to Round 8 and most people are now shooting over 50 percent of correct winners overall, even if the margins are all over the place.
The average winning margin in Super Rugby Round 8 was 13.8 and the overall average is 12.3 points, while 12 has been the most popular winning margin, happening six times. It is interesting to note that while 12 is a popular winning margin, 13 hasn’t been the winning margin in any games this year and an 11 point margin has happened once. 7 is the next most popular margins happening five times each.
Just over 50 percent of games have been won by the home team in 2015 with only 29 home wins from 53 games. There has been a rapid turnaround recently with most games in the last few rounds being won by the home team. Maybe the 2014 overall statistic of 71 percent of home wins set in 2014 could happen again this year too. It is an alarming trend, with away wins seemingly becoming more difficult to achieve. It is hard to know if it is simply because of the draw or if this trend looks set to continue.
Out of the New Zealand teams, the Blues lost their first game after returning from South Africa, while the Hurricanes just defeated the Blues, although they had a bye first. The Chiefs beat the Cheetahs by 10 points in a penalty ridden performance after returning from South Africa. It will be interesting to see how the Crusaders are affected.
There are some really sticky games this week with several games like Lions vs Sharks, Force vs Cheetahs and Blues vs Brumbies where you wouldn’t be surprised if either team won!
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In 2012, 69 out of 120 regular season games were won by the home team, this increased in 2013 with 77 out of 120 and in the year 2014, 85 out of 120 games were won by the home team (71 percent). It seems to be getting harder to win away, with 51 away wins in 2012, 40 away wins in 2013 and only 33 away wins in 2014.
The average winning margin has been increasing, from 10.89 points in 2012 to 12.85 points in 2014. The most common winning margin in 2014 was 3 points, in 2013 it was 7 points while in 2012 it was 5 and 6 points. Margins of 1, 7 and 8 points are also popular, while in 2014 a margin of 16 points was very popular, which shows why the average winning margin is increasing.
This is an excerpt from The Ultimate Rugby Tipping Guide 2015 ebook.
For Super Rugby Round 9 team lists click here
Blues vs Brumbies
These two teams have both won the Super Rugby title, but it has been a long time since then. These teams met in the 1997 Super 12 final in Auckland where the Blues were far too strong. Fast forward 18 years and the Brumbies are the top of the disappointing Australian conference, while the Blues are bottom of the New Zealand conference and the competition overall.
You would think that this would point to a Brumbies win, hands down, but while they dispatched the Cheetahs by 20-3 last week, they didn’t make the most of their opportunities and really miss Tevita Kuridrani in the midfield.
The Blues have some really gifted footballers and tend to get going at some stage during the season. A Blues upset is definitely on the cards, but they will need a change of fortune.
This game is set to be close, with Jerome Kaino looking to inspire the Blues from his Number Eight position. He has been one of the best loose forwards in the competition.
The Blues finally return to their beloved Eden Park which could make them a tricky proposition for the Brumbies, although it will require the Blues winning those tight games for a change and breaking their losing streak.
The Brumbies have the best defence in the competition, although the Blues do have the players to potentially exploit the Brumbies. It is amazing that the Blues have lost all of their games, but are yet to really get thrashed.
Players to watch: Along with Kaino, outside backs Charles Piutau and Frank Halai are dangerous.
For the Brumbies, Stephen Moore, Christian Lealiifano, Blake Enever, David Pocock, Joe Tomane and Henry Speight.
My pick: Brumbies
Crusaders vs Highlanders
On paper, the Crusaders should easily beat the Highlanders, but given that the Crusaders are returning from a trip to South Africa, then the travel factor will be a great leveller, despite the Crusaders completely owning not only the Sharks last week, but also the Highlanders in Christchurch usually.
The southern men are unchanged for this game and have a dangerous side, but they will get pushed around too much upfront to remain competitive against the Crusaders. It is Owen Franks’ 100th game.
This is the second time these two teams have this season with the Crusaders winning in Round 2.
Unfortunately for the Highlanders, the Crusaders have their big guns back and are gathering momentum, with Dan Carter set to return at some stage, while yet again the Highlanders are playing the Crusaders the week after having the bye, which is hardly ideal for such an important southern derby.
These two teams are wrestling for a Top Six spot and they both sit behind the Chiefs and Hurricanes in the New Zealand conference.
Players to watch : Crusaders have some world class players like Nemani Nadolo, Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock, Ryan Crotty, Colin Slade and young Jordan Taufua.
Highlanders: Aaron and Ben Smith are dangerous, along with backs like Malakai Fekitoa, Patrick Osborne and fantasy rugby bargain Waisake Naholo. The battle of the Fijian flyers will be classic.
My pick: Crusaders
Waratahs vs Stormers
This game seems to be the only obvious pick of Super Rugby 2015 Round 9 with the Waratahs hot favourites, although their record at home against the Stormers has been hardly flattering, but the Stormers have lost both their games on tour, although their loss to the Hurricanes was a bit unlucky.
The Stormers will miss big Duane Vermeulen who has been rested and this makes things far more difficult for the Stormers. They will bring in some confidence after a good second half performance against the Hurricanes, but despite being the strongest starting South African team, they seem to be sliding down the Super Rugby table.
The Waratahs are coming off the bye, but should still be too strong for the Stormers and this could well be the biggest margin of the weekend. The Waratahs sit eighth while the Stormers sit ninth, but the home advantage should be enough for the Waratahs.
Players to watch: Waratahs - Bernard Foley, Israel Folau, Kurtley Beale, Micheal Hooper, Will Skelton.
Stormers: (still to be named) – Scarra Ntubeni, Eben Etzebeth, Damian de Allende, Juan de Jongh.
My pick: Waratahs
Force vs Cheetahs
The Force return from a South African tour which is a case of what might have been. They lost two games narrowly, so this game could be a great opportunity to get themselves back into the winners circle. The Cheetahs have the worst defence in the competition, yet they have a dangerous rolling maul and some really good players like Heinrich Brussouw.
This game involves two teams already out of contention with the teams playing for pride in 12th and 13th. The bonus is that this unless this game ends in a draw, one team will break a five game losing streak (Cheetahs) or six game losing streak (Force).
The Cheetahs do welcome back the impressive Sarel Pretorius for this game, but they have struggled all tour.
Players to watch:
Force: Ben McCalman, Nathan Charles, Steve Mafi.
Cheetahs: Heinrich Brussouw, Boom Prinsloo, Joe Pietersen.
My pick: Force
Bulls vs Reds
A tour can turn a season around, just look at the Lions. The Reds will be hoping the same can be done for their season. The Bulls will be disappointed to lose to the Lions week and the Reds will probably face a backlash. Handre Pollard is back to make the Reds suffer. The Reds are struggling with James O’Connor and Quade Cooper injured and James Horwill suspended. The Reds are second last and have been given some thrashings in Pretoria in recent years with the Bulls likely to inflict more pain on the Reds.
Players to watch: (Bulls- yet to be named), Handre Pollard, Adriaan Strauss, Grant Hattingh, Jesse Kriel.
Reds (yet to be named) – Adam Thomson, Liam Gill, Jake Shatz.
My pick: Bulls
Lions vs Sharks
The much vaunted tour to Australasia breathed some new life into the Lions campaign with three wins from four games and they then returned to beat the Handre Pollardless Bulls last week.
The Lions are the most unlikely possible Top Six team. This game should be close. They are on a winning streak, while the Sharks got thrashed by the Crusaders last week. They will be missing Patrick Lambie for a while, but they will be so fired up after losing to the Crusaders that we are picking them to just sneak a win in a dour match.
Players to watch:
Lions – Warren Whiteley, Harold Vorster, Warwick Tecklenburg, Franco Mostert.
Sharks (yet to be named) – SP Marais, Ryan Kankowski, Fred Zellinga.
My pick: Sharks
Who are you picking to win Super Rugby Round 9 matches?
Join the Super Rugby Tips tipping competition!
http://www.superrugbytips.com/2015/04/super-15-rugby-round-9-preview-and.html
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