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Opinionated Rugby Commentary - by Fans for Fans
Spill what you really think about events in the rugby world.
The Formula - Super Rugby Round 3 Predictions 13 views
01 March 2013 by HarleyCollett
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You can leeeave your hat on.
Started with: $20
Current Balance: $24.10 (ballin')
Correct margin predictions: 4 from 8 - 50%
3 from 6 correct margin predictions last week, and I think anyone would take that given the unpredictability of what was essentially the first round. However, I think it's important to further analyze (or justify) why the Formula didn't predict 6 from 6 so that we don't make these mistakes again.
-In the Rebels vs Brumbies game, the Rebels three stars - O'Connor, Higginbotham and Beale all had to be taken off through injury pretty early on, hence the blowout in the score line. Injuries are what the Formula refers to as 'unpredictable elements' and I'm therefore not too concerned here. With the Rebels three stars off the field, the Formula had the Brumbies winning at 13 and over quite comfortably.
-In the Chiefs vs Highlanders game, the Chiefs really surprised me (and I think most) at just how excellent they were in all facets, particularly with their work at the breakdown. Their forwards totally dominated the Highlanders. Guys like Nanai-Williams and Aki were brilliant in the backs - straight running, fast, powerful. I think you'd struggle to find a better coaching staff than Smith and Rene anywhere in the world, and I won't be under-estimating the Chiefs again.
-The biggest surprise to me was with the Blues. As impressive as they were, especially their barnstorming loosies and big, powerful backs, I think the Hurricanes were horrific. They were outdone in all facets and made a very ordinary player in Noakes look excellent. In saying that, I did underestimate some of these no-name Blues players, especially the Saili brothers and Piutau. Living overseas I have no coverage to NPC, so when I saw them for the first time last week I knew at once my prediction for the Hurricanes to win by 12 and under was under threat. Again, I suspect an excellent coaching staff is behind this Blues 'upset' but I can't help but think the Hurricanes made the Blues look better than what they are.
All of the above I'll factor into this week's games. Speaking of which...
Blues vs Crusaders
Bit of a toughie to call first up as this is the Crusaders first game and it's very difficult to calculate just how big a part rustiness plays in determining results. The Crusaders have a much better team, especially in the tight. They have a far-superior kicking game and the best 10 in the world to dictate play, while they're also seasoned and tough; They won't allow the Blues as much go forward as the charitable Hurricanes did. The Blues have their tails up, are full of confidence, have a great coaching staff, but this should only serve to keep the game tight. If I was Kirwin I'd tell my boys to throw the ball around and run at the likes of Crotty and Adam Whitelock all day. The Formula has the CRUSADERS BY 12 AND UNDER.
Reds vs Hurricanes
Can the Hurricanes make amends for their poor showing last week? Surely they can't be any worse, but their forwards remain a real concern to me, even with Franks and Vito in there. It's not easy playing the 2012 champs at home, despite them being without Horwill and Genia, and I think they've done the right thing bringing Toua in at 15, even if this does hinder their kicking game. This is going to be a game full of running rugby, and while the Hurricanes should be far more competitive, the Formula has the REDS BY 12 AND UNDER.
Waratahs vs Rebels
The Waratahs took too long to shake off the rustiness against the Reds last week, but this week they're playing at home against an inferior opposition, and they have no average/poor players in any positions, though Dennis and Chapman to me are slow, sluggish, and don't contribute enough in the loose. It's just a question of whether the Waratahs will win by 12 and under or 13 and over here. The Rebels have played an extra game together, their three stars are back and starting and, given how boring and tight most Aussie derby matches are, I have to put my money on a victory to the WARATAHS BY 12 AND UNDER.
Chiefs vs Cheetahs
This is the first game where the Formula is convincingly saying to me one team will win by more than 13 points - by 27 points to be exact. The Chiefs should steamroll a Cheetahs team with one of the least dynamic packs in the competition (Brussow can't come back soon enough). Add to that the Cheetahs have flown 20,000 km from South Africa and are up against the champs.... say no more. CHIEFS BY 13 AND OVER.
Bulls vs Force
Oh, the Force. I've got a soft spot for them and I was so thrilled when they beheaded the Reds last year. But they just look so bad this year, particularly with Pocock moving on. And though the Bulls have struggled with the Force in the past, I don't think this will be the case this year on the Highveld. It doesn't matter that the Force hasn't named their team... unless they've found a Genie to magically grant them a decent 10, 7... front row... midfield.... I wonder if I should factor potential Genie unearthings into the Formula? Nah. BULLS BY 13 AND OVER.
********** I AM REVISING THIS PREDICTION 12 HOURS PRIOR TO KICK-OFF********* A decent 10 in Ebersohn has been chosen to start in 10, and Brown is starting in the loose. More importantly however is the weather. Thunderstorms are predicted in Pretoria. The Formula takes serious weather into account. The revised Formula prediction has the BULLS BY 12 AND UNDER.
Sharks vs Stormers
Two powerful South African teams who could both realistically take out the Championship. But the Sharks are at home and they're looking good. Another tight South African arm wrestle is on the cards here, and the Formula has the SHARKS BY 12 AND UNDER.
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Tags:
super rugby 2013 predictions, super rugby round 3 predictions
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