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Opinionated Rugby Commentary - by Fans for Fans
Spill what you really think about events in the rugby world.
Rugby World Cup Quarter Final Picks 14 views
06 October 2011 by The Swede Eaters
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Scotty Donaldson makes his Rugby World Cup Quarter Final picks, who do you think will win?
The Rugby World Cup Quarter Finals are here and there will only be four teams left in the tournament after this weekend. Three of these matches are difficult to pick with the New Zealand vs Argentina game the most obvious given that New Zealand have never lost to Argentina and that Argentina are a shadow of their former selves.
The other three matches could go either way. The New Zealand TAB can't separate the Wallabies and the Springboks, while Ireland are slight favourites over Wales and England despite getting more attention for their off field antics are favourites against the enigmatic French.
The loss of Daniel Carter for the All Blacks and the improvement by Wales and Ireland on other tournaments has really blown the tournament wide open with seven teams capable of making the final. Remember the quarter finals in 2007? Prepare for an upset or two!
Certain factors must be taken into consideration when accessing the chances of these teams.
The conditions - the weather in Wellington has been wet and windy all week leading u to the Ireland vs Wales and Australia vs South Africa matches but may have improved by the weekend. I still think it will be slippery given that the games are played at night. Wet conditions will suit England and South Africa in their matches because they have the big forward packs and maybe lack the flair out wide of their opponents.
The goal kickers - Ronan O'Gara is starting for Ireland and I think if Wales are relying on Rhys Priestland to kick them to victory as these knockout matches often come down to then they may struggle. France do have better goal kicking than England in this tournament. South Africa's Morne Steyn could be in a direct shootout with Berrick Barnes who has offered the Wallabies a lifeline. How much of a loss will the superboot Franc Steyn be for the South Africans with his long range ability?
Injuries - It is disappointing that injuries will rob us of the chance to see the best players of the tournament this weekend. Rory Best could still be ruled out for Ireland. Bakkies Botha and Franc Steyn are out for the Springboks, Dan Carter has dented the All Blacks chances with his injury, while they also have to worry about Guildford, Jane, Kahui, Woodcock and a certain Richie McCaw. The Argentina team do miss Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe. Will Hook be back for Wales? Plenty depends on who is fit for selection and who survives the game. The Wallabies struggled without Stephen Moore, Digby Ioane and David Pocock, but if all of these guys are playing eighty minutes then they give them a massive chance. Wait until the teams are named before making your picks, because this could affect the result.
Form - Does form count for much? France lost to Tonga, but could that be the shot in the arm they need to pull up their socks? The All Blacks always carry form into the finals, but it is because they make easy work of their pool play opponents.
Where there is money to be made
Looking at the odds, it would take a brave man to put money on Argentina at $15 per dollar spent to win. The best money is to be made on margins. New Zealand are paying $1.82 to win by 29 points or more. I think this is a relatively good bet, but conditions. I put money on the All Blacks at $1.60ish to win by more than 25 points.
The Ireland vs Wales and South Africa vs Australia could go either way, so there is good money around $2 to be made on a head to head and even more on a 12 and under given that these games will be tight. Will we see a draw?
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I think assuming Rory Best is playing, that Ireland should win this match. Ronan O'Gara is starting and he should kick them to victory in a tight match. I can't wait for the battle of the openside flankers and the centres. These teams are finally peaking for a Rugby World Cup. I think that Wales showed against the Springboks that they sometimes struggle to win the tight ones with poor goal kicking an achilles.
Teams: Ireland vs Wales
Time: 08/10/2011 18:00
Venue: Wellington
Pick: Home team by 12 & under
This result depends on which France shows up. These two teams have looked average at times during this tournament. France are coming off a loss to Tonga, but if they play for eighty minutes like they played against New Zealand for the first 15 minutes, then watch out England. England are the safe bet, but who knows with France?
Teams: England vs France
Time: 08/10/2011 20:30
Venue: Auckland
Pick: Home team by 12 & under
Plenty will depend on if the Wallabies can get parity up front against the big Springboks. If the weather is wet and the game is ugly then the Springboks will grind the Wallabies into submission. The battle between Pocock and Brussouw will be worth the price of admission alone.
Teams: South Africa vs Australia
Time: 09/10/2011 18:00
Venue: Wellington
Pick: Home team by 12 & under
The All Blacks have the easiest Quarter Final, but it will be interesting to see how Slade goes and how they play without injured personnel. If it is wet and the Argentina forwards come into their own then it could be closer than expected, but in all honesty Argentina are goneburgers.
Teams: New Zealand vs Argentina
Time: 09/10/2011 20:30
Venue: Auckland
Pick: Home team by 13 & above
Who will win the quarter finals?
rugbyworldcuptips.com
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