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Opinionated Rugby Commentary - by Fans for Fans
Spill what you really think about events in the rugby world.
The Formula - Super Rugby Predictions 13 views
15 February 2013 by HarleyCollett
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Who gon' win!
Last year I devised a formula with the hope to accurately gauge what team will win and by what margin. I found there were several major factors in determining the winner and margin. Player quality is the obvious leading factor here, and it is important to find out exactly how good each player is, but home ground advantage, derby vs non-derby, kicking out of hand, goal kicking, weather, time of day, coach and reserves all play huge factors in determining margins. Less important factors include morale, history, team unity and travel weariness; irrelevant as some may appear, they can be the difference between winning your bet and losing it.
Often it is fairly straight forward determining who the winner will be, but when you can predict the margin - 12 and under or 13 and over - you can make some serious money. So with that in mind, I’m starting off this season with a lowly $20, and with the help of the Formula I hope to turn it into a little bit more. Let’s preview the first two games.
The Rebels play the Force at home first up, and a quick scan down the team lists suggests a comfortable Rebels victory. But go with your instincts at your peril; need I remind you of the Rebels vs Crusaders/Reds vs Chiefs “upsets” last year. Home ground advantage and the trio of Higginbotham, O’Conner and Beale are the big differences here. Being a derby match, the game will be tough, closely fought, highly unlikely to be a blowout. Though the betting agencies are leaning towards a Rebels victory by 13 and over. My formula has the Rebels by 9.5 so it’s the REBELS BY 12 AND UNDER for me.
Next up we have the Brumbies playing the Reds at home. Although the Reds haven’t named their team it’s pretty easy to guess who they’re going to field. The Brumbies have the better rounded team, especially with White at the helm. Should be another victory for the home team here, and having just crunched the numbers that’s exactly what the Formula predicts too, by 5 points. So it’s the BRUMBIES BY 12 AND UNDER for me.
Here’s hoping to a good start to the season!
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