These teams will...
Last round was another great week for The Formula. Since the blog went live in Round 9, it's predicted 17 out of the 18 winners, all a bit easy innit? So to make things more difficult, last week I decided to look at margins - choosing the winner and whether they will win by 12 and under or 13+. Here I chose 4/7, which was slightly disappointing but still paid out an excellent return. Basically if you can work out who will win, then you have - at worst - a 50/50 chance of getting the margin of victory correct, and that means big bucks. But enough about all that - let's see what will happen this weekend...
Lions vs Blues
Clash of the welterweights. Though many are predicting a try-fest here (nothing to lose etc. etc.) I'm not so sure. Light rain is forecast which could make handling difficult and keep the game tighter than expected, while both teams are below-par with their handling skills as it is. Both teams are looking down the barrel of a record losing streak, and both have won just a single game this year. They will be DESPERATE to win. So who will?
Neither team really dominates in the back 3 division, nor the inside centres, nor the 9 and 10 positions, nor indeed the loose forwards! Both teams lineouts are equally woeful, while neither front row should gain any real ascendancy. The one strength I see for either team here is the Blue's kicking game, where their 10 and 12 should be able to dictate where the game is played; additionally, Anscombe is more accurate off the tee than Jantes. I'm going to back the BLUES BY 12 AND UNDER, (though I'd also put a few sneaky dollars on the Lions to do the same paying 5:1!)
Waratahs vs Bulls
I expect to see a huge improvement from the Tahs' this weekend. I like how they have brought AAC closer to the action at 12 and Halangahu in at 15; Elsom and Alcock are also welcome returns in the loose. This is a must win for them.
The Bulls have the better back 3, while the Tahs' edge the midfield battle. Both 9 and 10's ooze class, while the Tahs' loosies should be able to gain parity with the Bulls. The tight 5 belongs to the Bulls, and this could be crucial.
This will be another close one. The Bulls should dominate the set piece, Morne will keep his big boys in the right areas of the field, and their back 3 will chase the ball all day. They also have a superior kicking game, so if they can sure up their defense, they should be able to keep out a Waratahs team that have lacked flair on attack. I have to go for the BULLS HERE BY 12 AND UNDER.
Rebels vs Crusaders
Crusaders, yehp, by how much? Both back 3's are very capable on attack, while the Crusaders dominate the midfield easily. The Rebels might edge the 9 and 10 positions, while the whole Crusaders forward pack dominates the Rebels in all areas. I think the Rebels will again keep ball in hand, as they did against the Bulls, so the Crusaders can't get as much possession as they'd like, but this will only serve to slow the inevitable. They are in good form, the Rebels, and the home crowd will roar them on, so it's the CRUSADERS BY (only) 12 AND UNDER here.
Highlanders vs Hurricanes
Another very tricky one. The Highlanders are slowly but surely sliding down the Super Rugby table. They had a torrid time against the Sharks and have had to make the long journey home from SA. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, have their tails up and will be tough to stop following a battering of the Blues.
Both teams have great back 3' s though I feel the Hurricanes have the edge here. The midfield clash is even, while in the all important 9 and 10 both teams look good. The Hurricanes edge the loose forward battle, while the tight 5 has to belong to the Highlanders. The Highlanders aren't quite good enough to label their home ground a fortress, and they will tire sooner than normal (from their travel) as the Hurricanes play a quick, hurried game under the retractable roof - which will mean good conditions for running rugby. I'm going HURRICANES BY 12 OR UNDER here.
Stormers vs Cheetahs
Don't even need to compare teams here. A tight derby match where the better team will win, and not my much. STORMERS BY 12 AND UNDER.
Sharks vs Force
Sharks have got this easy, Pocock and Sharpe can't do everything by themselves. The back three easily belongs to the Sharks (interesting to see JP back out there). Don't know much about their new 13, but the Force have a decent defensive midfield so lets call that even. Sharks dominate the 9 and 10 jumpers with ease, while the Sharks at home should match the Force's loosies. The tight 5 is all Sharks. This is a day game which are generally higher scoring matches, and the Sharks will be looking for a bonus point, and while the Force have an excellent back row - they won't be able to stop the Sharks machine from scoring a few. SHARKS BY 13 AND MORE.
Chiefs vs Reds
This will be a cracker, and really, it could go either way. Two very good teams with excellent coaching staff, and the slightly lesser team playing at their fortress in the sun. The Reds edge the back 3, while the Chiefs, as always take the centres. The Chiefs have the better 9 and 10 combination, and Cruden could be dangerous on a dry pitch with that backline. The loosies are fairly even, while I prefer the Reds locks. The front 3 is too close to call.
What I like about the Chiefs here is that Messam and Retallick will be fresh from missing the last round. The Reds hit the breakdown hard, but these boys are big and strong and rested and that could make a difference to clear out the likes of Gill and Higginbotham.
I think this will be quite and open,running game, and with so many dangerous backs and a dynamic loose trio I have to go CHIEFS BY 12 AND UNDER.
http://formularugbypredictions.blogspot.com/2012/05/super-rugby-round-12-preview-who-will.html
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