I have been doing some number crunching on results from Super Rugby 2011 and the statistics don't lie with 30 victories (57%) for the home team compared with 22 (42%) for the away teams.  While the home team has dominated it isn't by as much as expected and the most common result is either Home 13+ 15 times (28%) with Home 12- 16 times (30%) or Away 12- 16 times (30%) all common.  There were also only 6 away wins by 13 or more points.  So when in doubt, it is no longer obvious to go home team 12 and under.

What do you think of the new Super Rugby competition format?  The way new format seems to be working well with plenty of local derbies keeping things interesting.  It looks like the "Top Six Finals" series will consist of two teams from each conference.  The format makes things more even across the three different countries.

The Crusaders look like the best team in the competition so far, despite the earthquake damaging their home region.  Other New Zealand teams who are doing well are the usually inconsistent Blues and the brave Highlanders from the small southern region.  Both these teams have toured South Africa.  The disappointing Chiefs and Hurricanes both have star studded backlines, but are being shown up in the tight forward exchanges.

The Stormers and Sharks are the most promising South African teams.  The Sharks have toured Australia and New Zealand so are probably in a stronger position than the Stormers in many respects.  The Bulls aged players are being shown up a bit, but they are still tough to beat.  The Lions and Cheetahs have been brave, but sit bottom of the table.  The Cheetahs win over the Waratahs is one of the upsets of the tournament.

The Reds have shot to the top of the table.  Their win over the Stormers this weekend shows how much they have improved.  The Waratahs aren't dominating without Phil Waugh as they once did, while the Brumbies and Force are struggling despite having a sprinkling of stars.  The Rebels are punching above their weight by actually winning some games.

Who do you think will win the Super Rugby title or make the "Top Six Finals"?  Will it change much from the current standings?  I think that this format restricts the number of teams who can make the playoffs.  I think you will do well to get three teams from the one country.  The current "Top Six" won't change much in my opinion.

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