Scotty Donaldson previews the Rugby World Cup final 2011 between New Zealand and France.
The New Zealand All Blacks go into Sunday's Rugby World Cup 2011
final as hot favourites following an impressive performance which has
seen them win five games in a row including a pool match victory over
France earlier in the tournament. The men in black look set to break
the Rugby World Cup bogey, despite having arguably less depth than in
previous tournaments and losing one of their best players Daniel Carter
to injury. They haven't won the William Webb Ellis since 1987, despite
being the best team in the world for long periods of time.
Such
is the dominance of the host nation in this tournament that if they
beat France on Sunday, it will be France's third loss of the tournament
and the All Blacks' sixth win in a row. Simply getting into the final
has been a great achievement for France who have only shown glimpses of
form during the tournament so far. It is difficult to know if this is
something to fear or not, given that the All Blacks have been stung
twice by France in previous tournaments. If France can put together 80
minutes of what they did in about 40 minutes against England and for
the opening 15 minutes in their pool match against New Zealand, then we
could have an upset on the cards.
The unpredictable nature of
France makes this match difficult to pick. I would say that the bookies
are offering great money of 7 to 1 for France to win the Rugby World
Cup final, which is a result that I think is unlikely, but possible. I
think France would win about two out of 10 matches against the All
Blacks and this is backed up by the statistics, although Rugby World
Cups can throw everything out the window.
The All Blacks have
played France 50 times since 1906, with 37 wins to the All Blacks, 12
to France and the one draw. The teams have played five times at the
Rugby World Cup, with New Zealand having a 3-2 advantage.Eden Park is a
fortress for the All Blacks having not lost on their largest ground
since 1994 when France scored "The try from the end of the world".
For
France to win following such a scratchy tournament they will have to
change their game plan. Referee Craig Joubert likes to keep the game
flowing and the All Blacks back three are used to diffusing bombs and
kicks for territory and will be dangerous on the counter attack. I
think Australia tried the kicking option too much against the All
Blacks and the hosts were too good, so I think France need to muscle up
in the forwards and then let their slippery backs loose which is
something they didn't do against Wales, but did well at times earlier
in the tournament. This means that we could be in for a great match.
Hopefully referee Craig Joubert doesn't decide that this is his chance
to stamp his mark on Rugby World Cup history by making too many
controversial calls. France need all the help they can get from the
referee and so the All Blacks will be hoping that Craig Joubert keeps
the game flowing and doesn't allow players to infringe at the
breakdown. So far he has been great.
If the All Blacks can stay
focussed like they did against Australia and hit the ground running
from kick off there is a chance they could win this one easily. My
prediction is New Zealand by 20 points.
Both teams go into the
final with settled lineups from the semi finals. The only change for
the All Blacks is the return of loose forward Adam Thomson in place of
Victor Vito. He offers more height and more experience at open-side
flanker.
FRANCE: Jean-Baptiste Poux, William Servat, Nicolas Mas,
Pascal Papé, Lionel Nallet, Thierry Dusautoir (c), Julien Bonnaire,
Imanol Harinordoquy, Dimitri Yachvili, Morgan Parra, Alexis Palisson,
Maxime Mermoz, Aurélien Rougerie, Vincent Clerc, Maxime Médard.
Replacements Dimitri Szarzewski, Fabien Barcella, Julien Pierre,
Fulgence Ouedraogo, Jean-Marc Doussain, François Trinh-Duc, Damien
Traille.
All Blacks: Israel Dagg, Cory Jane,
Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Richard Kahui, Aaron Cruden, Piri Weepu,
Kieran Read, Richie McCaw (capt), Jerome Kaino, Sam Whitelock, Brad
Thorn, Owen Franks, Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock. Reserves: Andrew Hore, Ben Franks, Ali Williams, Adam Thomson, Andy Ellis, Stephen Donald, Sonny Bill Williams.
Who are you picking to win and by how much?
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