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Opinionated Rugby Commentary - by Fans for Fans
Spill what you really think about events in the rugby world.
Super 15 Rugby Round 7 Preview and Fantasy Guide 5 views
26 March 2015 by The Swede Eaters
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Here is a preview of Super Rugby Round 7. Who are you picking?
For Super Rugby fans, the competition is getting warmed up with six rounds giving tipsters an opportunity to get a gauge on the form horses for 2015.
Super 15 Rugby Round 1 2015 left a lot of people red faced with most tipsters picking between two and three winners out of seven games. Fast forward to Round 6 and most people are now shooting over 50 percent of correct winners, even if the margins are all over the place.
Looking at the history of games it is intriguing to note that home advantage is crucial in some matches, but in others it doesn’t matter so much. It is interesting to note for example that the Rebels and Lions have won twice away from home, but lost their home games. They love being the underdogs away from home.
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In 2012, 69 out of 120 regular season games were won by the home team, this increased in 2013 with 77 out of 120 and in the year 2014, 85 out of 120 games were won by the home team (71 percent). It seems to be getting harder to win away, with 51 away wins in 2012, 40 away wins in 2013 and only 33 away wins in 2014.
This is an excerpt from The Ultimate Rugby Tipping Guide 2015 is available for only $4 for a limited time only.
For those playing fantasy rugby game www.testrugby.com, we are also naming players to watch. You can also join the Super Rugby Tips conference at SuperBru. It is difficult to afford a team if playing salary cap fantasy rugby, so you may have to buy bargains, but there are enough new players in Super Rugby 2015 to give you some options. 2015 seems tough to fill a squad without going over budget. The key is to sell players who have the bye straight away and buy them back early.
In fantasy rugby, you can relax knowing you have new allotment of trades. There are some good players coming off the bye from the Blues, Stormers and Reds, while the Brumbies have the bye. Given the stars in the Brumbies like Stephen Moore, young giant Rory Arnold and backs like Christian Lealiifano, Joe Tomane and Henry Speight, it means most managers will have to make some changes.
It is worth keeping an eye on the draw and realising that while the Waratahs have some great scoring players, they have the bye next week with the Highlanders, Waratahs and Force.
There are plenty of injuries, so it is important to check the Super Rugby team lists. There will also be players being rested to help their longevity, with the likes of Beauden Barrett and Pat Lambie two players to take the week off. This has huge ramifications for fantasy rugby managers, especially since they are two of the best first five eighths in the competition. Other options like Bernard Foley and Aaron Cruden have a bye in the next few weeks, so they wouldn’t be long term investments.
Game of the Round?
Round 7 is full of so many great matches, although at a glance, most of these games look relatively predictable, even though the margins may not be so easy to predict with the travel factor coming into it. What is your Game of the Round?
For Super Rugby Round 7 team lists click here
Hurricanes vs Rebels
The Hurricanes are the only unbeaten team in Super Rugby 2015, but any suggestions that their record will be easily retained should be quashed. The lowly Rebels have an unusual record in 2015 having lost their three home games, but winning their two away games against the Crusaders and Force, so they will not be easybeats.
The Hurricanes have some quality players not playing because of injury or being rested in Beauden Barrett, Julian Savea, Dane Coles and Ardie Savea, so this will be a leveller. James Marshall will start at 10 for the Hurricanes, while Jason Woodward returns and could do the goalkicking for the Hurricanes, making him a good fantasy option.
Surely, the Hurricanes should win this game (TJ Perenara’s 50th), but this game could be closer than expected.
Players to watch: Hurricanes: Victor Vito, Brad Shields, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Jason Woodward.
Rebels (yet to be named) : Luke Jones, Scott Higginbotham, Pat Leafa, Mike Harris, Sean McMahon.
My pick : Hurricanes
Reds vs Lions
The Reds welcome back their stars for this game, with Quade Cooper and James O’Connor reunited at last for a OneDirection reunion, while the Lions will be looking to go three from four from their Australasian tour which would be unheard of at the start of the tour.
The Lions seem to flourish on the road, like the Rebels and now sit 11th following two wins over the Blues and Rebels as part of this tour, after a terrible start at home to the season. It is like they enjoy being the underdogs and lack of pressure of being on the road.
It will be interesting to see what impact Quade Cooper makes, but in tandem with James O’Connor, these two should ignite the Reds backline, while Adam Thomson and the three Jameses add leadership to the Reds pack. The Lions rarely feature in fantasy rugby squads, thanks to their style of play more than anything else. Their forwards like Franco Mostert, Warwick Teckenburg, Derrick Minnie, Warren Whiteley and Armand van der Merwe. This shows where the Lions strengths are.
Players to watch: Quade Cooper, James Hanson, James O’Connor, Adam Thomson, James Horwill.
Lions - Franco Mostert, Derrick Minnie, Warren Whiteley and Lionel Mapoe.
My pick: Reds
Chiefs vs Cheetahs
The Chiefs return home to face the Cheetahs in Hamilton. It will be interesting to see how fresh the Chiefs are after two tough games in the Republic. Interestingly, they play another South African team.
The Cheetahs were thrashed by the Crusaders, but it will be interesting to see if the Chiefs forward pack can lay the platform like the Crusaders did last week.
There are some exciting players in this game. The Cheetahs have played in Chiefs country four times and drawn once, while their last game was a 45-3 defeat.
There is the thought that the Chiefs might be tired and the Cheetahs might be annoyed by their thrashing at the hands of the Crusaders which should result in a closer match than most people think, but we will see.
The Chiefs have unearthed some great talent, with Damian McKenzie and James Lowe, playing well this season. Experienced players like Aaron Cruden, Liam Messam, Sam Cane and Quentin MacDonald are also good fantasy options.
The Cheetahs have their own talent with Heinrich Brussouw and Joe Pietersen back.
Players to watch: Chiefs : Liam Messam, Aaron Cruden, Quentin MacDonald, Damian McKenzie, James Lowe.
Cheetahs : Johan Sadie, Heinrich Brussouw, Joe Pietersen.
My pick: Chiefs
Highlanders vs Stormers
The Highlanders are in sixth, while the Stormers are in 4th position, meaning that this game is set to be a cracker. We must remember that the Stormers look to dominate at set pieces, which is where the Highlanders aren’t exactly at their strongest, so this could be a ding dong battle of cat and mouse.
The Stormers have a strong recent record in Dunedin and could strangle the life out of the brave Highlanders forwards, but if the Highlanders can get their dangerous backs some ball, then they could be a good chance of winning.
It will be a baptism of fire for Highlanders openside James Lentjes who replaces the injured John Hardie and Shane Christie.
The Stormers are yet to be named, but will be looking to continue their strong start to the season and their recent form in Dunedin.
We are picking the Highlanders to win this game, but it will be close. Look for the Stormers to dominate possession and territory like most other teams do against the Highlanders, but the Highlanders counter-attacking style to just come through in the end as their backline has some real x-factor which previous Highlanders teams have struggled with. It will be a close one.
Players to watch: Lima Sopoaga, Patrick Osborne, Malakai Fekitoa, Waisake Naholo, Elliot Dixon, Ash Dixon, Ben Smith.
Stormers (yet to be named) Duane Vermeulen, Damian de Allende, Eben Etzebeth, Scarra Ntubeni.
My pick: Highlanders
Bulls vs Crusaders
The Bulls can’t afford to be as sloppy this week against the Crusaders as they were lucky to escape with a win over the improved Force.
It is hard to know to read into two home wins for the Crusaders over the Lions and Cheetahs, but one thing is for certain, the return of the likes of Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock and Nemani Nadolo have added some spark to the red and blacks. They definitely go into this game with the better team of paper, but it is never easy to win in Pretoria.
The Bulls have had a mixed season and we would pick them to beat most teams in Pretoria, but the Crusaders have a good record in South Africa and have the experience and personnel to win this game. Expect Richie McCaw to return for this game too.
This game is going to be epic! We are picking the Crusaders to sneak a victory, but expect a big game with plenty of matchups.
Pollard vs Slade, Serfontein vs Carter, Matfield vs Whitelock, Spies vs Read.
Neither team has been named yet.
Players to watch: Bulls - Handre Pollard, Jesse Kriel, Pierre Spies, Victor Matfield and Adriaan Strauss.
Crusaders : Dan Carter, Nemani Nadolo, Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock, Ryan Crotty.
My pick: Crusaders
Sharks vs Force
The Sharks will be without Bismarck Du Plessis for about a month and given that they are expected to be resting players like Lambie, Reinach and Marcell Coetzee for this game, expect the Force to push the Sharks.
Despite having a relatively average start to the season, the Sharks are in the Top Six after beating the Chiefs last week.
The Force only just lost to the Bulls last week and could well have won that one. It will be interesting to see if it knocked the wind out of their sails, or if the Force are enjoying being the underdogs on the road.
Could the Sharks be taking the Force too lightly? All will be revealed, but this one could well be closer than expected.
Players to watch: (neither team has been named yet)
Sharks: Franc Steyn, Kyle Cooper, Ryan Kankowski.
Force: Ben McCalman, Nathan Charles, Steve Mafi, Adam Coleman.
My pick: Sharks
Waratahs vs Blues
The Waratahs look to be getting back into some of the form that took them to the Super Rugby 2014 title, this is bad timing for the Blues who are the only team who are yet to win a game yet.
The Blues have brought in Dan Bowden to have an experienced halves combination in an attempt to guide this talented young backline around. Jerome Kaino is also back which will add some leadership to the forward pack. Kaino is one of the best loose forwards in most fantasy rugby games. The Blues have too many good players to be sitting so low on the table without a win.
The Waratahs should win comfortably thanks to their stars like Michael Hooper, Will Skelton, Kurtley Beale, Bernard Foley, Taqele Naiyaravoro and of course Israel Folau. Before you go spending up large on Waratahs, remember that they have the bye next week.
Players to watch:
Waratahs: Michael Hooper, Will Skelton, Kurtley Beale, Bernard Foley, Taqele Naiyaravoro and of course Israel Folau.
Blues: Jerome Kaino, James Parsons, Charles Piutau,
My pick: Waratahs
Who are you picking to win Super Rugby Round 7 matches?
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