For Super Rugby fans, the competition is getting warmed up with seven rounds giving tipsters an opportunity to get a gauge on the form horses for 2015.
Super 15 Rugby Round 1 2015 left a lot of people red faced with most tipsters picking between two and three winners out of seven games. Fast forward to Round 7 and most people are now shooting over 50 percent of correct winners, even if the margins are all over the place.
The average winning margin in Super Rugby Round 7 was close to the overall average with 11.9 and the overall average is 12.1 points, while 12 has been the most popular winning margin, happening six times. It is interesting to note that while 12 is a popular winning margin, 13 hasn’t been the winning margin in any games this year and an 11 point margin has happened once. 1 and 7 are the next most popular margins happening four times each.
Looking at the history of games it is intriguing to note that home advantage is crucial in some matches, but in others it doesn’t matter so much. It is interesting to note for example that the Rebels and Lions haven’t won at home all season but have won on the road. They love being the underdogs away from home. The Blues are being just as torturous on their home fans with no wins on the board yet.
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In 2012, 69 out of 120 regular season games were won by the home team, this increased in 2013 with 77 out of 120 and in the year 2014, 85 out of 120 games were won by the home team (71 percent). It seems to be getting harder to win away, with 51 away wins in 2012, 40 away wins in 2013 and only 33 away wins in 2014.
The average winning margin has been increasing, from 10.89 points in 2012 to 12.85 points in 2014. The most common winning margin in 2014 was 3 points, in 2013 it was 7 points while in 2012 it was 5 and 6 points. Margins of 1, 7 and 8 points are also popular, while in 2014 a margin of 16 points was very popular, which shows why the average winning margin is increasing.
This is an excerpt from The Ultimate Rugby Tipping Guide 2015 ebook.

For Super Rugby Round 8 team lists click here

It is also worth checking the Super 15 Rugby Team of the Competition so far here
And the Super Rugby Statistical leaders here
Hurricanes vs Stormers
The Hurricanes are the only unbeaten team in Super Rugby 2015, but any suggestions that their record will be easily retained should be quashed. The Stormers have dominated the Hurricanes in recent years and will be looking to continue that trend, although three of their last four matches have been in Cape Town. The Hurricanes historical record has to be ignored this year as their team is finally fulfilling the potential that everyone knew they had. They have always had a million dollar backline, but now their forwards are stepping up. They will have to against the big Stormers pack who welcome back Springboks Duane Vermeulen and Eben Etzebeth into the fray.
The Hurricanes easily beat the Rebels, while the Stormers who started the season with four wins, lost their way against the New Zealand teams, with the Chiefs and then the Highlanders giving them a dust up.
Surely, the Hurricanes should win this game (Ma’a Nonu’s 150th), but this game could be closer than expected.
Watch for the Hurricanes who have recalled Nehe Milner-Skudder, so all those Jason Woodward buyers will need to sell. While Milner-Skudder was great off the bench last week, and is an absolute bargain, like all Hurricanes, unless you are in a rare position with lots of trades, don’t buy him.
Warning: the Hurricanes have the bye next week.
Players to watch: Hurricanes: Reg Goodes, Victor Vito, Brad Shields, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Nehe Milner-Skudder, James Broadhurst, Julian Savea, Callum Gibbins.
Stormers: Duane Vermeulen, Juan de Jongh, Scarra Ntubeni, Manuel Carizza.
My pick : Hurricanes

Rebels vs Reds
The Reds welcome back Liam Gill and Greg Holmes for this one and Karmichael Hunt returns from the bench. With Quade Cooper and James O’Connor reunited at last for a OneDirection reunion the Reds will be slight favourites for this one. Both of these teams have been disappointing in 2015 with the Reds having the worst attack easily in 14th position, while the Rebels are 11th.
It will be interesting to see what impact Quade Cooper makes, but in tandem with James O’Connor, these two should ignite the Reds backline, while Adam Thomson and the three Jameses add leadership to the Reds pack.
The Rebels are yet to be named, but haven’t won a game at home this season and have only beaten the Reds once in their history.
Both teams will be fired up after losing to the Lions recently, while last week the Rebels were easily beaten by the Hurricanes.
The Reds need to sort out their attack and Quade Cooper needs to ignite this team which need to start winning games to avoid being a laughing stock in 2015.
The Rebels are jolly hard to beat, but they have yet to win at home this season, but with the exception of their loss to the Hurricanes, they haven’t been thrashed in 2015 unlike their opponents.
This game is probably the most polarising of the weekend for tipsters.
The Rebels have some great value fantasy rugby players in Sean McMahon, Pat Leafa and other players like Mike Harris and Luke Jones have been playing well this season and are fantasy studs.
These teams are two from the disappointing Australian conference, but it is hard to know if the Reds inconsistent stars like James O’Connor and Quade Cooper can spark them towards victory.
We think that the Reds will sneak a win. They will be hurting after losing last week to the Lions and given how the Rebels seem to struggle to win at home, then we will pick the Reds.
If you are betting then stay away from this game as this game is too close to call.
Players to watch:
Warning the Rebels have the bye next round
Rebels (yet to be named) : Luke Jones, Scott Higginbotham, Pat Leafa, Mike Harris, Sean McMahon.
Reds Quade Cooper, James Hanson, James O’Connor, Adam Thomson, James Horwill.
My pick: Reds
Chiefs vs Blues
It is a strange old world really when Super Rugby started in the 1990s, it would be considered an upset if the Chiefs beat the Blues, but now, it is a role reversal with the Chiefs being dominant in recent years. The Blues are yet to win a game and Charles Piutau has confirmed to be moving overseas, leaving John Kirwan scratching around for answers. The Blues have some talented players, but have been struggling to get the best out of their inexperienced backline. The Chiefs are sitting in second place in the New Zealand conference after beating the Cheetahs last week. This is a battle between one of the top teams and one of the bottom teams, but being a local derby, there is plenty of pride at stake. The Chiefs need to stop giving away penalties.
From a fantasy rugby perspective, Jerome Kaino is one of the best loose forwards in the competition, while the Chiefs have unearthed some great talent this season. The Chiefs have named their team and it will feature bargain priced players like James Lowe and Damian McKenzie, while to make things even more tough for the Blues is the return of world class lock Brodie Retallick.
Given the form and history between these two teams, the Chiefs should win this game comfortably.
The Chiefs have the bye next week.
Players to watch: Chiefs: Liam Messam, Aaron Cruden, Hika Elliott, Damian McKenzie.
Blues: Jerome Kaino, Charles Piutau.
My pick: Chiefs
Brumbies vs Cheetahs
The Brumbies have the best defence in Super Rugby 2015 and they are up against the team with the worst defence in the Cheetahs.
This match sees the return of Brumbies star David Pocock who will go head to head with Cheetahs backrow sensation Heinrich Brussouw in this game.
There are plenty of changes in this game as teams try to freshen things up a bit. The Cheetahs actually kept the Chiefs honest last week, while the Brumbies are coming off the bye and could be a bit slow out of the blocks.
The Brumbies should win this one based on form, but without Kuridrani and Arnold, the margin may not be as big as expected. Brussouw forms part of a useful loose forward trio with Britz and Prinsloo for this game and they do have some dangerously quick fast men outwide and a potentially dangerous rolling maul.
There are some new players on the wing and at lock for the Brumbies who could be worth a punt on if you are short of money in fantasy rugby games. Henry Speight moves from the wing to centre for this game.
Players to watch:
Brumbies : Stephen Moore, David Pocock, Henry Speight and Christian Lealiifano.
Cheetahs: Heinrich Brussouw, Boom Prinsloo, Joe Pietersen.
My pick: Brumbies

Sharks vs Crusaders
The Sharks will be without Bismarck Du Plessis for about a month and given that they have had some players being rested both last and this week, then it could cause disruptions to their team to face the Crusaders. The team hasn’t been named, but with Franc Steyn likely to be suspended and doubt over Pat Lambie and Marcell Coetzee’s availability, the Sharks could struggle.
Crusaders and All Blacks star Dan Carter returns to New Zealand for the birth of his child and so he will be missing for this game, while Richie McCaw is also being rested by starting on the bench, although it isn’t bad when you can bring Colin Slade and Matt Todd into your team to join a host of stars like Sam Whitelock, Ryan Crotty, Kieran Read, Israel Dagg and Nemani Nadolo. The Crusaders have plenty of big guns, but are still underdogs with some betting agencies.
The Sharks were far from convincing against the Force and if the weather is wet, the Crusaders are probably one of the only teams in the competition that won’t be pushed around up front.
The Crusaders lost to the Bulls last week, but were a little unlucky with some decisions and the bounce of the ball and so they should be too strong this week. They rarely lose twice in South Africa in one season and will be fired up for this one, which they could end up winning with room to spare.

Players to watch: (The Sharks haven’t been named yet)
Sharks: Pat Lambie*, SP Marais, Kyle Cooper, Ryan Kankowski, Marcell Coetzee*. Both of these guys could be rested.
Crusaders: Sam Whitelock, Kieran Read, Colin Slade, Nemani Nadolo,
My pick: Crusaders
Lions vs Bulls
The enigmatic Lions finally won some matches against the lowly Reds, Blues and Rebels but they will take some confidence from that. This local derby game will be a rude awakening home for the JBurg guys. The Bulls are yet to be named, but Handre Pollard adds a real edge to this team which helped them get up over the Crusaders.
Plenty will depend on who gets rested for the Bulls and how the Lions recover from their tour.
The Lions won the last time these two teams met at this venue, although the Bulls do have the overall record in JBurg.


We think the Lions will be tired and may struggle against the Bulls.
Players to watch:
Lions – Warren Whiteley, Harold Vorster, Derrick Minnie, Warwick Tecklenburg.
Bulls (yet to be named) - Handre Pollard, Burger Odendaal, Jesse Kriel, Pierre Spies, Victor Matfield and Adriaan Strauss.
My pick: Bulls

Who are you picking to win Super Rugby Round 8 matches?