Scotty Donaldson looks at the Rugby World Cup semi finals with some points at who to look at for managers and tipsters alike. The teams named are also listed.
The Rugby World Cup semi finals will be exciting and there is plenty of hype in New Zealand. There are heaps of factors which could influence the result of these two matches and who you go for in your tipping competitions.
1) Injuries - in a tournament like the Rugby World Cup 2011 injuries are inevitable and personnel will make a massive difference. Will Richie McCaw play? Will Kurtley Beale play? There are some important players in doubt and so this must be taken into account when making picks. We are seeing some interesting players in the Number 10 jerseys with Morgan Parra, Aaron Cruden and James Hook hardly considered the first choice selections at the beginning of the tournament.
2) Referees - the referees can easily play a major influence in any match. Just ask Samoa about George Clancy in their match against South Africa or the performance of Bryce Lawrence in the South Africa vs Australia. The rulings especially at the breakdown could be crucial in determining how much fluency the match has and whether it is determined by goal kicking penalties or tries.
3) Match conditions - it could be wet in Auckland during at least one of these matches and this usually keeps the game more even and tight. When it is raining territory usually comes into it as teams don't want to lose possession in their own half. It can work well for teams who have less fire power out wide or pace.
4) Experience and Form - These can be important, especially in knockout matches. Wales are bringing a tournament of good form into their game with France who have only really played well in one match. Experience goes a long way when the going gets tough. Some players have been in great form recently with Israel Dagg, Richard Kahui, Jerome Kaino and Ma'a Nonu going well for New Zealand, while Aaron Cruden's lack of experience could be tested. Quade Cooper hasn't been in the best of form, so he will be under pressure. The Wallabies will be hoping the classy Kurtley Beale is fit. France have a classy outside back of their own in form with Vincient Clerc performing well. Wales' Jamie Roberts and Sam Warburton are two quality performers too.
Implications for punters
1) Wales are slight favourites against France, while the All Blacks are quite strong favourites against the Wallabies, although I think it will be closer than the $3 Australia is paying suggests. If you need to chance your arm to make up positions then it could be good to go for France who have a good record against Wales, but bring less form into this game. If you are really desperate in your tipping league then go for the Wallabies. They have a good shot at winning and if you are based in a New Zealand competition you will make up ground on your opponents.
2) It looks like there will be two new goal kickers in the France vs Wales match with Morgan Parra and James Hook likely to kick goals, improving their value in <a href="http://www.testrugby.com/">www.testrugby.com</a>.
I am picking Wales by 5 points and New Zealand by 7.
For www.testrugby.com managers it is important to note that there are plenty of bargains available. Wales players Johnathon Davies, George North, Toby Faletau and Luke Charteris are great value and hopefully they will be in the final too. Morgan Parra could be a goer since he will most likely kick goals for France. Piri Weepu also comes into consideration if you can afford him for the same reason. Aaron Cruden could be a risky selection, but worth a shot if you are short of cash.
Here is my team
Pos Player Name Team Round Total Price
FR Huw Bennet WAL 0 0 $1,112,500
FR Keven Mealamu NZL 265 770 $1,177,500
LK Sam Whitelock NZL 0 0 $1,040,000
LK Luke Charterls WAL 235 235 $982,500
LF Toby Faletau WAL 205 970 $602,500
LF Jerome Kaino NZL 410 1670 $1,185,000
HV Morne Steyn SAF 115 780 $1,192,500
HV Piri Weepu NZL 0 0 $1,010,000
CT Jonathan Davies WAL 0 0 $790,000
CT Ma'a Nonu NZL 150 1225 $1,217,500
OB James O'Connor AUS 425 425 $1,197,500
OB George North WAL 105 105 $920,000
Rugby World Cup semi final teams named
France vs Wales
France:
Maxime Medard, Vincent Clerc, Aurelien Rougerie, Maxime Mermoz, Alexis
Palisson, Morgan Parra, Dimitri Yachvili, Imanol Harinordoquy, Julien
Bonnaire, Thierry Dusautoir (captain), Lionel Nallet, Pascal Pape,
Nicolas Mas, William Servat, Jean-Baptiste Poux. Reserves: Dimitri
Szarzewski, Fabien Barcella, Julien Pierre, Louis Picamoles, Francois
Trinh-Duc, David Marty, Cedric Heymans.
Wales:
Leigh Halfpenny, George North, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, Shane
Williams, James Hook, Mike Phillips, Toby Faletau, Sam Warburton (c),
Dan Lydiate, Alun Wyn Jones, Luke Charteris, Adam Jones, Huw Bennett,
Gethin Jenkins. Reserves: Lloyd Burns, Paul James, Bradley Davies, Ryan
Jones, Lloyd Williams, Stephen Jones, Scott Williams.
New Zealand vs Australia
New Zealand
Israel
Dagg, Cory Jane, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Richard Kahui, Aaron Cruden,
Piri Weepu, Kieran Read, Richie McCaw (capt), Jerome Kaino, Sam
Whitelock, Brad Thorn, Owen Franks, Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock.
Reserves: Andrew Hore, Ben Franks, Ali Williams, Victor Vito, Andy
Ellis, Stephen Donald, Sonny Bill Williams.
1. Sekope Kepu
2. Stephen Moore
3. Ben Alexander
4. Dan Vickerman
5. James Horwill (c)
6. Rocky Elsom
7. David Pocock
8. Radike Samo
9. Will Genia
10. Quade Cooper
11. Digby Ioane
12. Pat McCabe
13. Adam Ashley-Cooper
14. James O'Connor
15. Kurtley Beale
16. Tatafu Polota-Nau
17. James Slipper
18. Rob Simmons
19. Ben McCalman
20. Luke Burgess
21. Berrick Barnes
22. Anthony Faingaa
If Kurtley Beale is not fit, Adam Ashley-Cooper will move to fullback with Anthony Faiangaa moving to centre.
What are your picks?
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