Super Rugby Standing  

1 Reds Australian Conference Leader 62

2 Stormers South African Conference Leader 58

3 Crusaders New Zealand Conference Leader 57

4 Blues Wildcard 56

5 Bulls Wildcard 53

6 Sharks Wildcard 53

7 Waratahs 52

There are only seven teams left in the running for the Super Rugby Top Six finals with one round remaining.  It is difficult to know who will be playing their finals where, with the potential for some teams to travel far more than others.  Who will make the Top Six?  We look at the Round 18 matches and how this will affect the Top Six rankings.

The most important game of Round 18 is the Bulls vs Sharks.  The loser of this match is probably going to be overtaken by the Waratahs assuming they beat the Brumbies, while the winner could pass the Blues if they lose.

The most likely finishing order assuming the favourites win their matches this week are the following (remember the large number of upsets so far).

Reds 66

Stormers 62

Crusaders 61

Blues 60

Bulls 57

Waratahs 56

The only problem is that the Reds, Stormers, Crusaders, Sharks and Waratahs are all playing away matches against teams who have lifted their games in recent weeks, while most of these top teams aren't at the top of their game.

The above rankings would assume that there are no bonus points this weekend.  A bonus point win for scoring four tries could help the Crusaders, Blues and Waratahs move up a placing depending on tie breaker rules.

With the placings in the order above the semi-finals would be played in Dunedin (Crusaders would move their matches to Dunedin)  Crusaders vs Waratahs and Auckland where the Blues would host the Bulls.

Super Rugby Top Six finals draw

Reds bye

Stormers bye

Crusaders vs Waratahs

Blues vs Bulls

Semi-finals

Reds vs Blues

Stormers vs Crusaders

Final

Winner semi final 1

Winner semi final 2

Things would change substantially if for example the Cheetahs defeat the Stormers this weekend.That result could potentially leave the Stormers in fourth spot, but they would be awarded third spot most likely ahead of the Blues because they are a conference winner.  

That would see the following draw take place

Reds bye

Crusaders bye

Stormers vs Waratahs

Blues vs Bulls

Semi finals most likely

Reds vs Blues

Crusaders vs Stormers

Final

Winner semi 1

Winner semi 2

Another possible option is if the Sharks defeat the Bulls.  This could see them travelling to New Zealand to face the Blues.

Reds bye

Stormers bye

Crusaders vs Waratahs 

Blues vs Sharks

Semi final

Reds vs Blues

Stormers vs Crusaders

Final

Winner semi final 1

Winner semi final 2

Who do you think will make the Super Rugby finals?  Who will win?

I think the winner will finish first in their conference, because I think that it would be too difficult to win two away matches in the finals series.