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Super 15 Rugby Qualification Round Preview Guide 95 views 1 Comments
18 June 2015 by The Swede Eaters
 

Here is your guide to Super RUgby Qualifying Round.

For Super Rugby fans, it is make or break time with only one regular season round left. Now is the time to make a move in that tipping conference and that is where we can help.
It seems like only yesterday that Super 15 Rugby Round 1 2015 left a lot of people red faced with most tipsters picking between two and three winners out of seven games. Things have got more predictable since then with Round 11 and 15 featuring no upsets, just when some people desperate to make up points got sick of losing out when picking the favourites and went for the upsets!
The average winning margin in Super Rugby Round 18 was approximately 17.3 points, meaning that the overall average is now 12.5 points. Expect margins to drop in most games during the qualifiers, although there is usually one blowout.
Last round only one out of seven teams that lost matches did so by seven points or less, meaning that in under half of games (50 out of 120) the winning margin has been between 1 and 7 points.
Over 50 percent of games have been won by the home team in 2015 with 68 home wins from 120 games (57 percent). The overall statistic of 71 percent of home wins set in 2014 will not be matched. It is hard to know if it is simply because of the draw or if this trend looks set to continue. Although less home referees may also have something to do with this
Super Rugby Qualifiers will both be exciting games. Obviously both home teams have a slight advantage, but they are anything but a forgone conclusion. There are also more points up for grabs in most tipping competitions.

We have one local New Zealand derby and the other game is a battle between the Stormers and the Brumbies. Interestingly, if the Brumbies win, then the winners of the Highlanders vs Chiefs game will play the Waratahs. This is better for New Zealand as it could mean an All New Zealand final, but New Zealand teams do struggle to win in Sydney.

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Interestingly in the knockout stages in the last three Super Rugby seasons there have been at least two really close games, but also at least one really lopsided match. Travel seems to really affect finals’ results, with no away wins in the knockout stages since the Brumbies in 2013, while the Sharks picked up two away wins in the 2012 finals. The average winning margins in the knockout stages are similar to the regular season with the 2012 season the highest with the average winning margin of 13.8 points while in 2013 the average winning margin was only 8 points.


This is an excerpt from The Ultimate Rugby Tipping Guide 2015 ebook.

For those playing fantasy rugby game www.testrugby.com, we are also naming players to watch. You can also join the Super Rugby Tips conference at SuperBru. It is difficult to afford a team if playing salary cap fantasy rugby, so you may have to buy bargains, but there are enough new players in Super Rugby 2015 to give you some options. 2015 seems tough to fill a squad without going over budget. The key is to sell players who have the bye straight away and buy them back early. Next week you want to buy the Hurricanes and Waratahs players early.
There will be plenty of emotion, with so many players leaving their current teams at the end of Super Rugby 2015. Because of the Rugby World Cup there will be players going overseas, retiring or changing teams before the 2016 season.

For Super Rugby Qualifiers team lists click here

It is also worth checking the Super 15 Rugby Team of the Competition so far here
And the Super Rugby Statistical leaders here
Highlanders vs Chiefs
2015 has seen the dominance of the Highlanders against the Chiefs in both games. It looks like the Highlanders may have the Chiefs number, although given the amount of injured players for the Chiefs, it is no wonder they struggled to win in Invercargill.
The Highlanders have been boosted by the return of Malakai Fekitoa, Nasi Manu and Mark Reddish for this fixture. They now have their full complement of three Super Rugby locks, and three big guns in Aaron and Ben Smith and Malakai Fekitoa. Nasi Manu’s return adds a more powerful look to the Highlanders forward pack. The only negative is the loss of the industrious John Hardy.
The Chiefs have been a bit underwhelming down the home straight, losing their way following injuries to key players like Brodie Retallick, Liam Messam, Sonny Bill Williams etc. but these guys are back in the game and mean business.
On paper this should be a close game, with neither of these two teams have stars in their front row, but both sides have some international quality in the backs.
The Chiefs have made some interesting selections for this game, adding Mike Fitzgerald to the blindside flank position and Liam Messam to Number Eight to combat the Highlanders lineout, while Andrew Horrell starts in the hot seat at first five eighth, while Damian McKenzie starts where he is dangerous, at fullback, while Tim Nanai-Williams partners SBW in the midfield.
We think that the Highlanders are more settled and the Chiefs can’t seem to decide who to play in the Number 10 jersey.
Players to watch:
Highlanders: Waisake Naholo, Ben Smith, Elliot Dixon, Richard Buckman, Lima Sopoaga, Malakai Fekitoa.
Chiefs: Liam Messam, Sam Cane, Brodie Retallick, Hika Elliot, Tim Nanai-Williams, James Lowe, Damian McKenzie.
My pick: Highlanders


Stormers vs Brumbies
The Stormers are lucky to be in the Top Six, finishing with the seventh highest number of points, making a mockery of the Super Rugby system which sees the Brumbies, despite being on more points, having to play in South Africa.
They will be confident that they can upset the Brumbies, who have been disappointing in recent weeks without inspirational skipper Duane Vermeulen who is out injured for this one.
This game should see both teams attempt to get the rolling driving maul going.
But we think that Brumbies are in slightly better form and that the Stormers will struggle without Duane Vermeulen who has been their best player this season.
Players to watch:
Stormers (yet to be named) – Damian de Allende, Eben Etzebetb, Nizaam Carr, Dillyn Leyds.
Brumbies (yet to be named - David Pocock, Christian Lealiifano, Ita Vaea, Stephen Moore.
My pick: Brumbies

Who are you picking to win Super Rugby Qualifiers 2015?

http://www.superrugbytips.com/2015/06/super-15-rugby-qualifiers-preview-and.html

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1 . HarryWade 19 Jun 2015 07:16 PM
The Stormers played a weakened team against the Sharks as they knew they would finish third. If they had won that game it is likely that they would have finished in fourth in a conventional system. They also won more games then the Brumbies.

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