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Opinionated Rugby Commentary - by Fans for Fans
Spill what you really think about events in the rugby world.
Six Nations Round 5 Preview-Who Will Win? 5 views
20 March 2015 by The Swede Eaters
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Who is going to win Six Nations 2015?
Six Nations Round 5 is here with four teams with a mathematical chance of winning the championship, who are you picking to win?
You have to admit, while the standard of rugby in the Six Nations is a mixed bag, the points scoring system and evenness of the teams ensures an exciting competition.
Italy and Scotland are out of the running after disappointing campaigns which saw Scotland go winless despite promising so much more in the November Internationals, while Italy's win over Scotland papered over the cracks of some other substandard performances, which were summed up last week against France when they lost 29-0 to an average French side.
France has been disappointing this championship and would need three upsets to occur if they are to win the Six Nations Championship, including them beating England, by a substantial enough margin to finish ahead of the other teams on points differential. France seems a long way from almost winning the Rugby World Cup in 2011.
It will also be interesting to see who even takes the field in these games. There have been plenty of injuries recently and coaches have been forced to rotate their teams to allow for injuries. There are plenty of frontrow changes this week with the big men potentially struggling with the physical nature of the championship.
The beauty of the Six Nations is that it will come down to which team has the best points differential at the end of the five rounds. England hosts France and should be too strong. They have the best points differential of +37 points and therefore have a slight buffer over Ireland (+33) who play Scotland at Murrayfield. Wales (+12) starts the round in Italy and they are giving the other teams a 20 points differential headstart along with knowing that the other teams play after their game and know what they have to do. Do you think it is better to play first, second or third on the final day of Six Nations 2015? Wales and Italy start the day, followed by Scotland vs Ireland, with England and France knowing exactly what must be done to win the championship. This leaves teams having to get outside their comfort zone and at times go against their natural instinct to kick the ball away, instead needing to chance their arms. There have been so many tries missed out on simply because some teams didn't utilise the ball in hand in open play.
The mindset of teams going into the final round of the Six Nations will be fascinating. Knowing that they need to post a big win will probably weigh on the minds of Wales and they could get too far ahead of themselves in trying to score tries rather than focusing on winning the game first. Sometimes this can come back to bite you on the bum with the extra pressure!
This also has major ramifications for Six Nations fantasy rugby games like www.testrugby.com . There could potentially be some one sided matches with tryscoring players like outside backs getting more ball in space than usual.
For Six Nations Round 5 team lists click here
Italy vs Wales
Wales will be looking to keep their Six Nations championship hopes alive when they play Italy in Rome. In the back of their minds is turning around a 25 point deficit in their points differential which could be crucial. This could either make for an entertaining game of rugby or a frustrating one for Wales who will be looking to run before they can walk in the sense that they might be trying to score lots of points before they have secured victory. It will be interesting to see how the pressure to score tries affects Wales.
Italy were poor against France and got thrashed 29-0. This week they are without usual captain Sergio Parisse and this will put a dent in their already slim chances of victory.
Wales should be too strong. They have won six out of eight games in Rome and are finishing the Six Nations as the form team. While they have won six games in Rome, their margin of victory is usually less than what is required. They really need a 40 point win to have any chance, given that Ireland and England should both win comfortably. Their biggest win in Rome was a 30 point win in 2005, other than that, the margins have been closer with the overall points differential between these two teams in Rome being nine points. Wales is in good form and should win easily, but we can't see them winning by enough to win the championship. They have won their last seven matches against Italy and the last three in Italy.
Fantasy Rugby Guide : Wales locks Alun Wyn Jones and Luke Charteris were impressive last week in fantasy rugby with over 300 points each in www.testrugby.com . Leigh Halfpenny is going to be a big scorer this week, while look for Toby Faletau, George North and bargain priced Scott Baldwin to get plenty of points.
For Italy, they make plenty of tackles and so Leonardo Ghiraldinhi is a good option. Other players like Josh Furno, replacement Number Eight Samuela Vunisa and Luke McLean are options.
My pick: Wales by 21 points.
Scotland vs Ireland
Make no bones about it, Scotland has been disappointing in 2015. They finish their campaign hosting Ireland who need to win by four points more than England. Ireland's points difference is +33 and this puts them in a handy position, but sometimes Scotland can be hard to thrash at home. Even winning at Murrayfield was difficult in the November Internationals last season and at times in the Six Nations, but Scotland failed to win a game in the Six Nations 2015.
Ireland struggles to win in Scotland, losing their last two games and surprisingly Scotland holds a head to head advantage at home vs Ireland with a 29-23 lead. The recent wins by Scotland vs Ireland have been lowing scoring slogs, which are not what Ireland needs. Scotland also holds an overall head to head advantage, 66-58 with five draws. This makes Scotland somewhat a bogey team for Ireland, which is not what Ireland fans want to hear.
Ireland should win, but given that the average score between these teams at Murrayfield is a 13-12 win to Scotland, don't expect too many points to be scored. Ireland should be too strong this time, given the poor form of Scotland, but expect them to put up a fight, playing for pride. A win alone could end up being good enough for Ireland, given the unpredictability of France and so a win should be the first priority for Ireland before they worry about the score.
Fantasy Rugby Guide: For Scotland watch for Jonny Gray, Ross Ford, Greig Laidlaw, Stuart Hogg and Mark Bennett.
For Ireland, they have plenty of fantasy rugby options Jonny Sexton, Robbie Henshaw, Jared Payne, Tommy Bowe, Jamie Heaslip, Paul O'Connell, Rory Best.
My pick: Ireland by 10 points.
England vs France
It is difficult to pick this one. France are impossible to bet on, they lose to Wales in Paris one week before making lots of changes and thrashing Italy by 29 points in Rome the next week. England are more consistent and will have the advantage of knowing what is required to win the Six Nations championship before their game starts. While the England of 2014 seemed to know how to keep the ball in hand and score tries, the 2015 side has reverted to type and will rely on mauling the French to score their tries. Winning must be the focus first and foremost, especially since they have the best points differential going into the week +37. Simply winning might be enough, depending on how much Ireland and Wales win by (if they do).
France has also gone backwards recently and it will be interesting to see if they can repeat their heroics from the Rugby World Cup 2011, later this year given how average they have been recently.
Head to head in London, England has a big advantage 28-11 and won their last three games. The last six games between these two teams have been close (margins ten points or less) and France won the last time they played, but it was in France.
The home advantage should get England home in this match, but the margin probably won't be too big.
Fantasy Rugby Guide: England: George Ford, Jack Nowell, Jonathan Joseph, Mike Brown, Courtney Lawes, Billy Vunipola.
France: Loann Goujon, Thierry Dusautoir, Jules Plisson. Noa Nakaitaci.
There are some good value outside backs in this game!
My pick: England by 9 points
Who are you picking to win the Six Nations Rugby Championship 2015?
We think England will win on points differential.
http://www.superrugbytips.com/2015/03/six-nations-round-5-preview-who-will.html
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