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Opinionated Rugby Commentary - by Fans for Fans
Spill what you really think about events in the rugby world.
Super 15 Rugby Round 6 Preview and Fantasy Rugby G 3 views
19 March 2015 by The Swede Eaters
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Do you agree?
For Super Rugby fans, the competition is getting warmed up with five rounds giving tipsters an opportunity to get a gauge on the form horses for 2015.
Super 15 Rugby Round 1 2015 left a lot of people red faced with most tipsters picking between two and three winners out of seven games. Fast forward to Round 5 where there were only two upsets and despite some unpredictable margins, most tipsters scored at least 50 percent for the round.
The average winning margin in Super Rugby Round 5 was a high 14.4 points while 12 has been the most popular winning margin, happening four times. The overall average winning margin is 12.2 points.
Less than 50 percent of games have been won by the home team in 2015 with only 14 home wins from 34 games (41 percent). This is well below the 71 percent of wins for home teams in 2014. Winning away from home has been very common, making a default option of a home win not as safe as in 2014. Mind you, there are plenty of games left to change that!
Looking at the history of games it is interesting to note that home advantage is crucial in matches between the Waratahs vs Brumbies, with the Brumbies only winning twice, while in the Highlanders vs Hurricanes games, the home advantage doesn’t mean much with both teams winning approximately half of the games on the road.
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In 2012, 69 out of 120 regular season games were won by the home team, this increased in 2013 with 77 out of 120 and in the year 2014, 85 out of 120 games were won by the home team (71 percent). It seems to be getting harder to win away, with 51 away wins in 2012, 40 away wins in 2013 and only 33 away wins in 2014.
The average winning margin has been increasing, from 10.89 points in 2012 to 12.85 points in 2014. The most common winning margin in 2014 was 3 points, in 2013 it was 7 points while in 2012 it was 5 and 6 points. Margins of 1, 7 and 8 points are also popular, while in 2014 a margin of 16 points was very popular, which shows why the average winning margin is increasing.
This is an excerpt from The Ultimate Rugby Tipping Guide 2015 is available for only $4 for a limited time only.
For those playing fantasy rugby game www.testrugby.com, we are also naming players to watch. You can also join the Super Rugby Tips conference at SuperBru. It is difficult to afford a team if playing salary cap fantasy rugby, so you may have to buy bargains, but there are enough new players in Super Rugby 2015 to give you some options. 2015 seems tough to fill a squad without going over budget. The key is to sell players who have the bye straight away and buy them back early.
In fantasy rugby, you can relax knowing you have new allotment of trades. With the triple bye round happening this week, it is necessary to sell your Stormers, Blues and Reds immediately and buy back any players at the lock of the round, with Jerome Kaino and Duane Vermeulen performing well so far in 2015. It is also important to plan ahead and only buy players you can get at least a few games out of before they have the bye. The Brumbies have the bye next week, while the Waratahs, Highlanders and Force have the bye the following round. It is probably not worth investing in players from these teams until after they have the bye.
It is also important to pick players from teams who play a good points scoring style, especially when playing teams like the Cheetahs, Lions and Force.
Game of the Round?
Round 6 is full of so many great matches that it is difficult to pick a so called “Game of the Round” with the Highlanders hosting the Hurricanes, Sharks hosting the Chiefs and the Brumbies and Waratahs clashing. These three games are not only difficult to predict, but also sure to be great. In other matches, the Rebels host the Lions, Bulls are at home to the Force and the Crusaders host the Cheetahs. These should be more predictable. My pick for game of the round is Highlanders vs Hurricanes, but I am biased having lived in these two areas.
What is your Game of the Round?
For Super Rugby Round 6 team lists click here
Highlanders vs Hurricanes
The Highlanders and Hurricanes are two of the form teams, not only of the New Zealand Conference, but the entire Super Rugby competition. Both teams have had unusually good starts to the season, with the Hurricanes unbeaten and the Highlanders only losing one game so far.
The Hurricanes forwards have stepped up in 2015 and this could mean trouble for the Highlanders who have the worst possession statistics of any in the competition with an average of just over 12 minutes possession per game, but despite this, they have won three games from four and their victims include recent champions like the Reds, Waratahs and Chiefs. The Highlanders know how to hang tough!
The bookies are struggling to separate these two teams and Super Rugby Tips thinks this will be a close one based on form and the history between these two teams. This is a friendly rival with many players in the Highlanders playing for ITM Cup teams in the Hurricanes franchise region.
The loss of Dane Coles and James Broadhurst for the Hurricanes is a double blow, but the Hurricanes do have the edge on paper and should dominate the Highlanders in the set pieces. The backline clashes will be exciting, especially given that many of the Highlanders come from the Hurricanes franchise area.
The home advantage is hardly a factor in games between these two teams, although the Hurricanes haven’t really faced any of the top teams in the competition yet, so it will be interesting to see if they are up to the task.
For fantasy rugby managers, the back three players for each team are great points scorers.
Players to watch: Hurricanes: Victor Vito, Beauden Barrett, Conrad Smith, Julian Savea, Nehe Milner-Skudder (bargain).
Highlanders: Patrick Osborne, Lima Sopoaga, Malakai Fekitoa, Waisake Naholo, Ben Smith, Tom Franklin (bargain).
My pick : Highlanders
Rebels vs Lions
This game is probably one for the purists only as neither of these two teams is likely to feature at the business end of the season. The Rebels sit in ninth spot after a gutsy win over the Force, while the Lions are struggling in 13th spot. This represents a great opportunity for both teams.
The Rebels have never beaten the Lions, while that sounds like an impressive statistic, the Lions have never been to Melbourne!
The Lions have been getting enough ball thanks to their industrious forward pack, but they lack the X Factor backline to make the most of their opportunities and this shows, with one of the worst attacks in the competition.
The hosts should be too strong as they have shown some potential in picking up a few wins this season and they also kept the Brumbies honest in their recent game.
The Lions backline will feature regular pivot Elton Jantjies in the midfield, this could mean one thing, the Lions will be playing for territory! Don’t expect to see the Lions backs scoring heaps of tries!
There are some impressive fantasy rugby players for the Rebels with Mike Harris a rare goalkicking midfield back, while Pat Leafa is great value for money for the Rebels. The Lions rarely feature in fantasy rugby squads, thanks to their style of play more than anything else. Their forwards like Franco Mostert, Warwick Teckenburg, Warren Whiteley and Armand van der Merwe. This shows where the Lions strengths are.
Players to watch: Rebels – Luke Jones, Pat Leafa, Scott Higginbotham, Mike Harris, Sean McMahon.
Lions - Franco Mostert, Warwick Teckenburg, Warren Whiteley and Armand van der Merwe
My pick: Rebels
Crusaders vs Cheetahs
Both of these teams have won twice, but the Cheetahs look to be a team on the decline after they lost to the Sharks last week (who loses to the Sharks in 2015?). The Crusaders look to be on the rise after a slow start. Last week, they not only gained their core of stars like Nemani Nadolo, Andy Ellis, Sam Whitelock, Owen Franks, Dan Carter and Kieran Read back into the fold, but they gained confidence after beating the Lions.
The Cheetahs have terrible defence, but they also enjoy scoring tries too, ensuring that this could be a very high scoring game for their first road on the Australian tour.
Given the history and form of these two teams, the Crusaders should win comfortably, assuming they don’t get complacent, even without King Richie McCaw.
It will be interesting to see if Dan Carter is the permanent first choice Number 12 for the Crusaders. Codie Taylor starts at hooker, while Israel Dagg is back from injury to keep punters on their toes.
For players of fantasy rugby games, the Crusaders big scoring players like Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock, Dan Carter and Nemani Nadolo are worth the investment. The Cheetahs have their own talent with Heinrich Brussouw back, while Torsten van Jaarsveld is a bargain.
Players to watch: Crusaders: Dan Carter, Nemani Nadolo, Kieran Read, Luke Romano, Sam Whitelock.
Cheetahs : Torsten van Jaarsveld, Heinrich Brussouw, Joe Pietersen, Francois Venter.
My pick: Crusaders
Bulls vs Force
The Bulls look to be finding their way, while the Force look like they are losing their way following a promising start, so expect more of the same in Pretoria this week.
The Bulls are traditionally tough at home and have built up some momentum with back to back wins. The most satisfying thing for them is that their attack has started functioning after a poor start to the season. The Force started with a win and have now lost their last four straight, so it will be a long day at the office for the Force.
Handre Pollard looks set to dominate in fantasy rugby this week, while Jesse Kriel, Pierre Spies, Victor Matfield and Adriaan Strauss should continue their value in fantasy rugby games. The Force have some good fantasy rugby players, even if this doesn’t equate to results in Nick Cummins, Steve Mafi, Junior Rasolea, Ben McCalman and Nathan Charles.
Expect the Bulls to win easily.
Players to watch: Bulls - Handre Pollard, Jesse Kriel, Pierre Spies, Victor Matfield and Adriaan Strauss.
Force – Ben McCalman, Steve Mafi, Junior Rasolea, Nick Cummins and Nathan Charles.
My pick: Bulls
Sharks vs Chiefs
These two teams both won last week with the Chiefs accounting for the Stormers, while the Sharks beat the Cheetahs. This is a tough match to pick. The Sharks have improved in recent weeks with the introduction of some of their experienced players from overseas clubs, but the Sharks are yet to face a non- South African team and the Chiefs look to be a class act.
The Chiefs were innovative in combating the Stormers mauls and survived off scraps to still win. It seems that most New Zealand teams will be in the same boat against the South African teams, but South African teams need to realise that winning the forward battle doesn’t necessarily equate to winning the game.
The Sharks have been disappointing in 2015, but could have turned over a leaf in beating the Cheetahs, but the Chiefs showed good form last week and will run the Sharks around.
Neither team has been named for this game. Both teams have some injuries, with Tim Nanai-Williams and Sonny Bill Williams probably out for the Chiefs, while Pieter-Steph du Toit and Willem Alberts are out with injury. All four of these players are good fantasy rugby players.
Can the home ground get the Sharks home? The Sharks have a terrible recent record against the Chiefs and only look a shadow of their former selves. It is one thing beating the other South African teams who play a certain style, but the Sharks may struggle to beat the Chiefs who play a totally different style based on moving the ball around.
For those playing fantasy rugby, it could be time to sell Pat Lambie. It seems that as in previous seasons, Franc Steyn eats into Lambie’s production. Pieter-Steph Du Toit was one of the best locks in the competition, but he is out with injury. These two teams haven’t been named, but options for the Sharks are Marcell Coetzee, Bismarck Du Plessis and Franc Steyn.
The Chiefs have a habit of unearthing talent and Damian McKenzie and James Lowe are examples of this. It is actually disturbing the way the most of the New Zealand teams are doing this by introducing rookies to Super Rugby with amazing success. It will be interesting to see who starts in the midfield. Aaron Cruden and Sam Cane are two other players worth buying.
Players to watch: (neither team has been named yet)
Sharks: Bismarck Du Plessis, Franc Steyn, Marcell Coetzee.
Chiefs: Aaron Cruden, James Lowe, Hika Elliott, Matt Symons, Sam Cane.
My pick: Chiefs
Waratahs vs Brumbies
The Brumbies vs Waratahs is going to be a virtual Wallabies trial, with these two teams easily the best teams in the Australian conference. One look at the respective starting teams shows some world class international players.
The Waratahs will be looking to bounce back after a nightmare in Dunedin and will be tough to beat after hitting the tackling bags this week. The hosts will welcome the return to Sydney for the first time since their Round 1 loss to the Force.
The Brumbies are at the top of the table and will fancy themselves to win. They have only lost one game and had an easy win in Brisbane.
The hosts have an impressive record at home against the Brumbies, but the Brumbies will take some stopping. This is a day time kick off.
David Pocock returns off the bench for the Brumbies.
There will be some great match ups with Bernard Foley vs Matt Toomua, Rory Arnold vs Will Skelton (Battle of the Giants), Ita Vaea vs Wycliff Palu, Christian Lealiifano vs Kurtley Beale, Joe Tomane vs Taqele Naiyaravoro. Tatafu Polatu-Nau has been replaced.
In fantasy rugby, players from the Waratahs haven’t been scoring as heavily as last season, but Michael Hooper, Will Skelton, Kurtley Beale, Bernard Foley and Israel Folau are still big points scorers.
The Brumbies also have some big scorers with Stephen Moore, Rory Arnold, Tevita Kuridrani, Ita Vaea, Henry Speight and Christian Lealiifano.
Players to watch:
Waratahs: Michael Hooper, Will Skelton, Kurtley Beale, Bernard Foley, Taqele Naiyaravoro and of course Israel Folau.
Stephen Moore, Rory Arnold, Tevita Kuridrani, Ita Vaea, Henry Speight and Christian Lealiifano.
My pick: Waratahs
Who are you picking to win Super Rugby Round 6 matches?
http://www.superrugbytips.com/2015/03/super-15-rugby-round-6-preview-and.html
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