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Opinionated Rugby Commentary - by Fans for Fans
Spill what you really think about events in the rugby world.
Super 15 Rugby Round 13 Preview - Pick Margins 1 views
09 May 2013 by The Swede Eaters
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Super Rugby Round 13 looks set to be a more predictable round as far as picking winners goes, but as Scotty Donaldson discovers, sometimes it is picking the winning margins is the difficult thing! Which match do you think will be the closest?
Super Rugby Round 13 features plenty of matches which are relatively
predictable. For instance, the Chiefs should beat the Force on Friday
night, while the Blues should beat the Rebels, but often it is difficult
picking the margins. I hope I haven't put the mockers on the Blues and
Chiefs, given the last time I came out and said something similar, the
Brumbies drew with the Southern Kings.
Anyway, my point is that it is often the margins which separates the
tipsters in SuperBru and other virtual rugby tipping games. Often in
large conferences you need a point of difference. If everyone is
picking the popular margins then you often have to share the points or
get the exact margin correct which is difficult, to claim the points for
being the closest manager. Sometimes it is worthwhile going for lower
or higher margins than everyone else, given that while there is still
the odd upset in Super Rugby, it is often the size of the margin which
separates the majority of tipsters. The Crusaders vs Rebels match was
one that most people were picking to be a cricket score and so was the
Rebels vs Chiefs, but the odd punter who went low, managed to get the
closest points and have a buffer of several points either side. The
same can be said for the Waratahs and Bulls massive wins last weekend.
Lets just say it would have taken a brave person to pick the Waratahs to
win by 62 points last week.
My picks Super Rugby Round 13
I am going for home wins for all teams except the Southern Kings.
The Chiefs have plenty of injury worries when they take on the Force. I
didn't realise how bad things really were when I made my picks. I have
realised that to make up places then I need to go for the odd extreme
margin. I am picking the Chiefs to trounce the Force which is possible,
but it will be a test of the Chiefs rejigged backline. In hindsight a
smaller Chiefs win looks more likely, but I am having to pick against
the tide to increase my risk of collecting the points.
The Reds vs Sharks will be closer than most people think. The Reds have
had a tough last three matches which would have taken its toll on the
players. They looked really tired at the end of the Force game last
week and the Sharks who have lost a few players to injury, could have
taken a draw against the Highlanders and some would say should have won
in Dunedin.
The margin for the Cheetahs vs Hurricanes is difficult to tell. The
Cheetahs are coming off the bye and will be keen to thrash the
Hurricanes like the Bulls did last week. It can be difficult facing a
team after they got thrashed as they will be hurting. If Conrad Smith
was fit, I would give the Canes a chance, but I think the Cheetahs will
sneak in.
The Blues vs Rebels is another difficult game to predict. I picked
earlier than usual this week before I realised that Kurtley Beale was in
trouble again. The Rebels have lost narrowly the last two weeks, but
the Blues are one of New Zealand's best teams and should be too strong
at home. The Blues should win, but depending on TMO decisions the
margin could be hefty! This seven point prediction is at the lower side
of the ledger, but aimed at undercutting the other tipsters.
The Waratahs vs Stormers is probably the least predictable game of Super
Rugby Round 13 with the Waratahs returning home from South Africa.
Expect the Stormers to bring their physical style of game, but it will
be interesting to see how much both of these sides have left in the tank
since they have both been on the road. The Waratahs are a decent side
and I am going for them to sneak a win at home. This match is a
potential upset.
The Southern Kings will be looking to beat the only team below them on
the ladder when they meet the Highlanders in Super Rugby Round 13.
Their confidence will be sapped after their thrashing at the hands of
the Waratahs last week, while the Highlanders may have enough rare
confidence to give them an incentive to play well. I think the
Highlanders have too many stars to be sitting in last place in the
competition and could win well in their first game out of New Zealand
this season.
For update Super Rugby Round 13 team lists go to
http://www.superrugbytips.com/p/super-rugby-2013.html
Who are you picking to win Super Rugby Round 13 matches?
My picks for Super Round 13:
| Game |
Date and time |
Your pick |
| [76] Chiefs v Force |
10 May 19:35 (local)
10 May 19:35 (your time*) |
Chiefs by 28 |
| [77] Reds v Sharks |
10 May 19:40 (local)
10 May 21:40 (your time*) |
Reds by 7 |
| [78] Cheetahs v Hurricanes |
10 May 19:10 (local)
11 May 05:10 (your time*) |
Cheetahs by 7 |
| [79] Blues v Rebels |
11 May 19:35 (local)
11 May 19:35 (your time*) |
Blues by 7 |
| [80] Waratahs v Stormers |
11 May 19:40 (local)
11 May 21:40 (your time*) |
Waratahs by 6 |
| [81] Southern Kings v Highlanders |
11 May 17:05 (local)
12 May 03:05 (your time*) |
Highlanders by 21 |
Have your say!
http://www.superrugbytips.com/2013/05/super-rugby-round-13-preview-picking.html
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