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Opinionated Rugby Commentary - by Fans for Fans
Spill what you really think about events in the rugby world.
Round 9 - Preview - Who will win? 14 views
20 April 2012 by HarleyCollett
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These teams will...
Following a performance of horrific proportions by the fabled Formula last weekend (2/6), much of this week (30 mins or so) has been spent examining, re-examining, and perfecting it. One conclusion I have drawn is that - with stronger teams - home ground advantage brings about a fortress-like mentality where they are much more difficult to beat. With the weaker teams - although undoubtedly beneficial - home ground advantage has less of an impact in determining results. This was particularly evident in the Cheetahs loss at home, where they played with spirit but ultimately lacked the skills to compete; it was also evident in the Crusaders victory at home, where they defeated an undefeated Stormers, despite a possible travel-fatigue factor.
I also think it is important to break the teams down into parts - tight 5, loosies, inside backs, centres and outside backs. The team with the better backs should always win if their forwards can gain parity. Enough rambling - may the formula redeem itself!
Highlanders vs Blues: Highlanders playing at home, in conditions that suit their running style. Their outside backs are far better, while the Blues have the better midfield. With Smith at 9 for the Highlanders, I think they edge the Blue's there - despite Delany joining the squad only this week. The Highlanders have a far better loose trio, with Thomson in the form of his life. Tight 5 is fairly even but with Hore at 2 he should provide more go-forward, while Mealamu is out - a huge loss. The Highlanders locks are also far more physical. The Blues will be desperate, and a handful - they've won the last 6 against the Highlanders after all - but you have to go with the HIGHLANDERS here.
Reds vs Stormers: Tough one to predict this one innit. The Reds have an amazing record at home and the Stormers will be feeling the grind after a tough last 2 games away from home against the Highlanders and Crusaders. However, their team could probably beat the Wallabies at Newlands let alone the Reds, so let's break it down and see if we can find an answer. Stormers edge the Reds in the back 3 division with Pieterson playing a good territorial game with the boot and the wings far exceeding their Aussie counterparts. In the centres I have to give the Stormers the edge too - Harris has just come back from injury and will be rusty, while the Stormers ooze X factor there. Genia takes Duvenage in the 9 jersey, but Grant's experience should annihilate his inexperienced counterpart. Reds have better all-round loosies - which is huge - but the Stormers physicality in the tackle evens things out; still, I'll give that to the Reds. I would give the tight 5 to the Stormers usually without blinking an eye, but with Bekker out and the Reds 5 revved up at home it's close. Still, the Stormers front 3 are more mobile, more aggressive. The Stormers take the 5.
Very tight, and head to head they're pretty close too. But with the Stormers better kicking game and a far more settled team, particularly in key positions - I'm going to go with the STORMERS here by not many. At all.
Crusaders vs Hurricanes
Back 3 - even. Centres - Crusaders. Insides - Hurricanes. Loosies - even. Tight 5 - overwhelmingly Crusaders. And with the Crusaders just starting to hit their stride, you can't look past the Crusaders here - even if they are away from home. They're better in the rucks and mauls, their defense is far more sound, and they possess a way better kicking game with Carter at 12. CRUSADERS.
Bulls vs Brumbies
BULLS, easy peasy. With Morne feeding off the exceptional Hoggard and controlling territory that will give them a huge edge. There's no stopping the Bulls forwards at home - not when they're up against an only okay forward pack, and the back 3 have a great work rate - especially when chasing kicks. White has to pull a Gandalf the Grey out of his wizards hat if he wants to snatch this one for his adopted team. BULLS.
Waratahs vs Rebels
Waratahs - at home - better everywhere except at 12 and 15. Enough said. WARATAHS.
Sharks vs Chiefs
Along with the Reds vs Stormers, the toughest game to call. What might put things on the Chiefs side slightly is the fact the Sharks have come all the way from NZ, while the Chiefs are already in the Republic. They are very fit, the Chiefs, and didn't seem affected by the altitude as much as most traveling teams. Add to that that they undoubtedly have the better side - and it's easy to say Chiefs. Then again, the Sharks have Lambie and, more importantly, the titan Bis Mark. They'll be desperate to get a win at home here or they will be sliding past the ladder rungs and crashing in a heap with the Lion. Bis Mark is a fourth loosie, a leader, and provides unwavering go forward. This is hard.
The Chiefs comfortably dominate the back 3 and the midfield. Kerr-Barlow has been fantastic at 9 for the Chiefs, so I have to give the Chiefs the edge here too. However, the Sharks have the better loosies. The Sharks should nullify much of the front-foot ball that the Chiefs backs need, but I think the Chiefs can at least gain parity here. I like the Chiefs 4-5 more too.
Add to all this the fact the Chiefs coaches are better, and I have to go CHIEFS.
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