Scotty Donaldson does the number crunching to look at results in the first 10 rounds of Super Rugby 2012.
Super Rugby Round 10 is over and the
cream is rising to the top with the Stormers, Crusaders and Chiefs
looking the most likely teams to win the competition. The average
winning margin is increasing as the strong teams like the Crusaders are
starting to kick into gear, while the lesser lights are starting to fade
after decent starts. This is similar to what happened during the Rugby
World Cup where the lesser teams are having their depth tested. I
thought I would do some analysis of results from the first ten rounds of
Super Rugby action to make things easier for punters and participants
in tipping competitions.
Here are the statistics
1) There have been 66 matches in Super Rugby 2012 so far.
2) The home team has won 35 out of 66 matches or 53 percent of matches. The travel factor is less of a factor anymore.
3) Round 1 was the closest with an
average winning margin of 4.4 points and six out of the seven losers got
bonus points for finishing within seven points.
4) Round 6 had the highest average margin with 14.4 points.
5) The average winning margin has been over 10 points in five rounds including four of the last five rounds.
6) With the exception of Round 2, the
first five rounds had the closest results with six winning margins of
under seven points in Round 1 and 5 and in 25 of the first 34 matches
(74 percent) in the first five rounds.
7) The Bulls winning margin of 53 points
against the Reds in Round 5 was the biggest winning margin and the only
winning margin over seven points in that round.
8) There have been 38 bonus points for
finishing within seven points in 66 matches (58 percent). So always
select at least half of your margins of seven points or less when making
your picks.
9) There have been only two bonus points for finishing within seven points for teams in Rounds 6,7 and 10.
10) The average margin for the first
five rounds was 8.4, although if you take out the massive score in the
Bulls vs Reds match then the average margin was 7 points.
11) The average margin for the last five rounds is 11.9 points.
12) The average winning margin for all ten rounds is 10 points.
13) Rounds 5 and 7 were best for the home teams with five wins out of seven matches.
14) Round 10 was best for the away teams with only the Chiefs winning at home and five away wins.
15) There have been no draws so far.
To quote Navjot Singh Sidhu -"Statistics are like mini skirts, what they reveal is enticing, what they conceal is vital."
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