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Where’s the World Cup value? 52 views 0 Images
05 March 2014 by Englandfan
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If you were to look ahead to next year’s Rugby Union World Cup with a view to having a shrewd punt on the overall outcomes – where would your money go?
This may seem like it’s too long in advance. After all, next year’s World Cup doesn’t even kick off until the 18th of September next year in England. But the beauty of taking a shrewd gamble so far in advance of a major event is that you can ignore the “noise” of the latest news surrounding the sport – and look instead to history to spot the real value. This is a useful technique for getting betting value because history has shown us that New Zealand, Australia, or South Africa are the likeliest winners. In fact, since the World Cup began back in 1987, only England have upset the applecart the one time – back in 2003. Otherwise, it stands at New Zealand, Australia and South Africa with two wins each, England one and the rest a big fat zero – though France have been the bridesmaid on no fewer than three occasions.
This tends to suggest that we’ll see the same again in England next autumn – whatever the odds say today. In this way, we may be able to find a little value.
On this basis – we have to rule out the Kiwis. If you were staking your life on the outcome, you’d surely pick out the perennial All-Black favourites – but what we’re trying to do is find a little value so at around 6/5, the Blacks certainly aren’t that!
Next up are South Africa at around 5/1 and though they stand a great chance, it still isn’t a long enough shot. The same can be said of the hosts at around 11/2 third favourites. England will be desperate to win on home soil, but they aren’t great value. The same is true of neighbours Wales at around 10/1. They just haven’t got the World Cup pedigree unlike the next two teams on our list, who look very much like they are worth a value punt – and they’re Australia and France both priced at around 10 or 11-1.
This looks more like a value bet based on history – and history is by far the most important variable this far in advance. Investors talk about “reversion to mean” when considering their investment decisions and we should do the same with far in advance rugby union betting. The tendency is for the cream to rise to the top and when there are short term blips, the powers that be in those nations tend to do what it takes to put things right before the main event which, in our case, is the World Cup.
So France and/or Australia are the best value bets and, if you’re shrewd enough, you may be able to get a value bet for nothing. With the 32 Red casino, for example, you qualify for an immediate big free bonus bet along with $32 for every $20 deposited – and the site has a sports book as well. Whether you decide to re-invest any proceeds on France or Aus’ is quite another matter – but that’s where the value is.
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